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Exchange rate cointegration across central bank regime shifts

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  • Jose A. Lopez

Abstract

Foreign exchange rates are examined using cointegration tests over various time periods linked to regime shifts in central bank behavior. The number of cointegrating vectors seems to vary across these regime changes within the foreign exchange market. For example, cointegration is not generally found prior to the Plaza Agreement of September 22, 1985, but it is present after that date. The significance of these changes is evaluated using a likelihood ratio procedure proposed by Quintos (1993). The changing nature of the cointegrating relationships indicate that certain aspects of central bank activity do have long-term effects on exchange rates.

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  • Jose A. Lopez, 1996. "Exchange rate cointegration across central bank regime shifts," Research Paper 9602, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednrp:9602
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Barkoulas, John & Baum, Christopher F. & Chakraborty, Atreya, 2003. "Forward premiums and market efficiency: Panel unit-root evidence from the term structure of forward premiums," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 109-122, March.
    3. Darbha, Gangadhar & Patel, Urjit R., 2004. "Nonlinear Adjustment in Real Exchange Rates and Long Run Purchasing Power Parity--Further Evidence," Working Papers 04-1, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
    4. Stéphane Goutte & Benteng Zou, 2012. "Continuous time regime switching model applied to foreign exchange rate," Working Papers hal-00643900, HAL.
    5. Mr. Marcelo P. Dabós & Mr. V. Hugo Juan-Ramon, 2000. "Real Exchange Rate Response to Capital Flows in Mexico: An Empirical Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2000/108, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Marcelo Dabos & V. Hugo Juan- Ramon, 1998. "Real Exchange Rate Response to Capital Flows in Mexico: An Empirical Analysis," Working Papers 21, Universidad de San Andres, Departamento de Economia, revised Dec 1999.
    7. Barkoulas, John T. & Barilla, Anthony G. & Wells, William, 2016. "Long-memory exchange rate dynamics in the euro era," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 92-100.

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