IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

A Re-examination of the Fragility of Evidence from Cointegration- Based Tests of Foreign Exchange Market Efficiency

Listed author(s):
  • John Barkoulas

    ()

    (Louisiana Tech University)

  • Christopher F. Baum

    ()

    (Boston College)

We re-examine Sephton and Larsen's (1991) conclusion that cointegration-based tests for market efficiency suffer from temporal instability. We improve upon their research by i) including a drift term in the vector error correction model (VECM) in the Johansen procedure, ii) correcting the likelihood ratio test statistic for finite-sample bias, and iii) fitting the model over longer data sets. We show that instability of the Johansen cointegration tests mostly disappears after accounting for these two factors. The evidence is even more stable in favor of no cointegration when we apply our analysis to longer data sets.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://fmwww.bc.edu/EC-P/wp311.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Boston College Department of Economics in its series Boston College Working Papers in Economics with number 311..

as
in new window

Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: 01 Feb 1996
Publication status: published, Applied Financial Economics, 1997, 7:635-643.
Handle: RePEc:boc:bocoec:311
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Boston College, 140 Commonwealth Avenue, Chestnut Hill MA 02467 USA

Phone: 617-552-3670
Fax: +1-617-552-2308
Web page: http://fmwww.bc.edu/EC/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. Craig S. Hakkio & Mark Rush, 1990. "Cointegration: how short is the long run?," Research Working Paper 90-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  2. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
  3. Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 1989. " Common Stochastic Trends in a System of Exchange Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(1), pages 167-181, March.
  4. Sephton, Peter S, 1994. "Cointegration Tests on MARS," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 23-35, February.
  5. Dwyer, Gerald Jr. & Wallace, Myles S., 1992. "Cointegration and market efficiency," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 318-327, August.
  6. Cerchi, Marlene & Havenner, Arthur, 1988. "Cointegration and stock prices : The random walk on wall street revisited," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 333-346.
  7. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
  8. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  9. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-328, August.
  10. Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 1994. " Cointegration, Fractional Cointegration, and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(2), pages 737-745, June.
  11. Sephton, Peter S. & Larsen, Hans K., 1991. "Tests of exchange market efficiency: fragile evidence from cointegration tests," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 561-570, December.
  12. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-472, August.
  13. Diebold, Francis X & Gardeazabal, Javier & Yilmaz, Kamil, 1994. " On Cointegration and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(2), pages 727-735, June.
  14. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  15. Craig S. Hakkio & Mark Rush, 1987. "Market efficiency and cointegration," Research Working Paper 87-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  16. Bossaerts, Peter, 1988. "Common nonstationary components of asset prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 347-364.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:boc:bocoec:311. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F Baum)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.