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La crise monétaire turque de 2000/2001 : analyse de l'échec du plan de stabilisation par le change du FMI

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Abstract

This article empirically investigates the failure of the Exchange Rate-Based Stabilisation Program started in Turkey in January 2000, under the IMF supervision. For that purpose, a Vectorial Error Correction Model integrating an uncovered interest rate parity modelling short term deviations is estimated. We use an unusual daily database to take into account the everyday commitment of monetary authorities for the crawling exchange rate. The results show the inability of the central bank to sustain the program, despite its seeming flexibility. Indeed, the monetary instrument apparently left to the central bank, namely the monetary base, was actually mainly market-determined.

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  • Jérôme Héricourt & Julien Reynaud, 2006. "La crise monétaire turque de 2000/2001 : analyse de l'échec du plan de stabilisation par le change du FMI," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques bla06009, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
  • Handle: RePEc:mse:wpsorb:bla06009
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    Keywords

    Exchange rate crisis; monetary policy; exchange rate-based stabilization program; Turkey; VECM.;

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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