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La crise monétaire turque de 2000/2001 : analyse de l'échec du plan de stabilisation par le change du FMI

  • Jérôme Héricourt

    ()

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris I - Panthéon-Sorbonne)

  • Julien Reynaud

    ()

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris I - Panthéon-Sorbonne)

Cet article propose un examen empirique de l'échec du Plan de Stabilisation par le Change mis en place sous l'impulsion du FMI en Turquie à partir de janvier 2000. Nous estimons un modèle vectoriel à correction d'erreur dans lequel les chocs de court terme sont modélisés à l'aide d'une parité de taux d'intérêt non couverte. L'emploi de données en fréquence quotidienne, inhabituelle dans ce type d'étude, nous permet de rendre compte de la contrainte liée à la fixité du taux de change, pesant au jour le jour sur l'autorité monétaire. Nos résultats soulignent que l'apparente flexibilité laissée à la banque centrale turque au travers des ajustements de la base monétaire était en réalite largement tributaire des facteurs externes, laissant la banque centrale pieds et poings liés au bon vouloir du marché.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) with number halshs-00084717.

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Date of creation: Jan 2006
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Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00084717
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