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La crise monétaire turque de 2000/2001 : analyse de l'échec du plan de stabilisation par le change du FMI

  • Jérôme Héricourt


    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS)

  • Julien Reynaud


    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS)

This article empirically investigates the failure of the Exchange Rate-Based Stabilisation Program started in Turkey in January 2000, under the IMF supervision. For that purpose, a Vectorial Error Correction Model integrating an uncovered interest rate parity modeling short term deviations is estimated. We use an unusual daily database to take into account the everyday commitment of monetary authorities for the crawling exchange rate. The results show the inability of the central bank to sustain the program, despite its seeming flexibility. Indeed, the monetary instrument apparently left to the central bank, namely the monetary base, was actually mainly market-determined.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) with number halshs-00084717.

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Date of creation: Jan 2006
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Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00084717
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  1. Francis X. Diebold & Javier Gardeazabal & Kamil Yilmaz, 1993. "On cointegration and exchange rate dynamics," Working Papers 93-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  2. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  3. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Scholarly Articles 12491026, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  4. John Barkoulas & Christopher F. Baum, 1996. "A Re-examination of the Fragility of Evidence from Cointegration- Based Tests of Foreign Exchange Market Efficiency," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 311., Boston College Department of Economics.
  5. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 6254, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear Of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408, May.
  7. Ayse Ertugrul & Jerome Hericourt & Julien Reynaud, 2005. "Fonction de reaction et politique monetaire en changes fixes : une nouvelle formulation appliquee a la Turquie," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 103, pages 97-119.
  8. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1995. "The mirage of fixed exchange rates," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 95-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  9. M. S. Mohanty & Marc Klau, 2004. "Monetary policy rules in emerging market economies: issues and evidence," BIS Working Papers 149, Bank for International Settlements.
  10. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Determination of Cointegration Rank in the Presence of a Linear Trend," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 383-97, August.
  11. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  12. Baillie, R.T. & Bollerslev, T., 1993. "Cointegration, Fractional Cointegration, and Exchange RAte Dynamics," Papers 9103, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
  13. M S Mohanty & Philip Turner, 2008. "Monetary policy transmission in emerging market economies: what is new?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 35, pages 1-59 Bank for International Settlements.
  14. Sephton, Peter S. & Larsen, Hans K., 1991. "Tests of exchange market efficiency: fragile evidence from cointegration tests," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 561-570, December.
  15. John B. Taylor, 2001. "The Role of the Exchange Rate in Monetary-Policy Rules," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 263-267, May.
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