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Monetary policy transmission in the CEECs : revisited results using alternative econometrics

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  • Jérôme Héricourt

    () (TEAM)

Abstract

This paper aims at providing better supported results regarding monetary policy transmission in Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs). In the general frame of VAR models, our study differs from previous research in two main respects. Firstly, we provide estimations that do not rely on the hypothesis of cointegration usually exploited in the related literature, but economically meaningless over less than ten years spans and statistically very fragile. Secondly, we present another set of results, relying on real GDP monthly data that have been rebuilt using the Chow and Lin (1971) method; this allows for an alternative to the traditional industrial production data, a partial and highly unstable proxy variable for output. These original methodological insights lead to results emphasizing the general prevalence of exchange rate and domestic credit channels for monetary policy transmission across the studied countries, despite some persistent national specificity. The empirical evidence also incites to be reasonably optimistic regarding the relevancy of a close integration of these countries into euro area.

Suggested Citation

  • Jérôme Héricourt, 2005. "Monetary policy transmission in the CEECs : revisited results using alternative econometrics," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques bla05020, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
  • Handle: RePEc:mse:wpsorb:bla05020
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    File URL: ftp://mse.univ-paris1.fr/pub/mse/cahiers2005/Bla05020.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2000. "Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 561-586, June.
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    17. Jeffery D Amato & Stefan Gerlach, 2001. "Modelling the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in emerging market countries using prior information," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Modelling aspects of the inflation process and the monetary transmission mechanism in emerging market countries, volume 8, pages 264-272 Bank for International Settlements.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jérôme Creel & Sandrine Levasseur, 2006. "Canaux de transmission de la politique monétaire dans l'ue. Le cas de trois nouveaux entrants," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 57(4), pages 881-898.
    2. Magdalena Borys & Roman Horváth & Michal Franta, 2009. "The effects of monetary policy in the Czech Republic: an empirical study," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 419-443, November.
    3. repec:agr:journl:v:2(591):y:2014:i:2(591):p:35-66 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Balázs Égert & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Transition Economies: Surveying the Surveyable," MNB Working Papers 2006/5, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    5. Era Dabla-Norris & Holger Floerkemeier, 2006. "Transmission Mechanisms of Monetary Policy in Armenia; Evidence from VAR Analysis," IMF Working Papers 06/248, International Monetary Fund.
    6. repec:onb:oenbwp:y:2006:i:1:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Iulian Popescu, 2012. "Effects Of Monetary Policy In Romania - A Var Approach," CES Working Papers, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 4(3a), pages 605-624, September.
    8. Fabrizio Coricelli & Balázs Égert & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Monetary Transmission in Central and Eastern Europe: Gliding on a Wind of Change," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 44-87.
    9. repec:rej:journl:v:16:y:2013:i:47:p:57-74 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:jes:wpaper:y:2012:v:4:p:605-624 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Fabrizio Coricelli & Bal??zs ??gert & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Central & Eastern Europe: Gliding on a Wind of Change," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp850, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    12. Popescu, Iulia Vasile, 2012. "Effects of monetary policy in Romania. A VAR approach," MPRA Paper 41686, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy transmission; VAR models; CEECs.;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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