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Effects of monetary policy in Romania. A VAR approach

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  • Popescu, Iulia Vasile

Abstract

Understanding how monetary policy decisions affect inflation and other economic variables is particularly important. In this paper we consider the implications of monetary policy under inflation targeting regime in Romania based on a vector autoregressive method including recursive VAR and structural VAR (SVAR). Therefore, we focus on assessing the extent and persistence of monetary policy effects on gross domestic product (GDP), price level, extended monetary aggregate (M3) and exchange rate. The main results of VAR analysis reflect a negative response of consumer price index (CPI), GDP and M3 and positive nominal exchange rate behaviour to a monetary policy shock, and also a limited impact of a short-term interest rate shock in explaining the consumer prices, production and exchange rate fluctuations.

Suggested Citation

  • Popescu, Iulia Vasile, 2012. "Effects of monetary policy in Romania. A VAR approach," MPRA Paper 41686, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:41686
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    Cited by:

    1. Lucian Croitoru, 2021. "Responding to Criticism of Monetary Policy in Romania in the Decade Surrounding the 2008 Financial Crisis (2004-2013)," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 39-58, December.
    2. Famoroti Jonathan Olusegun & Adeleke Omolade, 2022. "Impact of monetary policy transmission mechanism in West African countries," Studia Universitatis „Vasile Goldis” Arad – Economics Series, Sciendo, vol. 32(1), pages 20-42, March.
    3. Lan Nguyen, Thi Mai & Papyrakis, Elissaios & van Bergeijk, Peter A.G., 2021. "Publication bias in the price effects of monetary policy: A meta-regression analysis for emerging and developing economies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 567-583.
    4. Dedu, Vasile & Stoica, Tiberiu, 2014. "The Impact of Monetaru Policy on the Romanian Economy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 71-86, June.
    5. Thi Mai Lan Nguyen, 2020. "Output Effects of Monetary Policy in Emerging and Developing Countries: Evidence from a Meta-Analysis," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(1), pages 68-85, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy; transmission mechanism; vector autoregressions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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