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Asymmetric Monetary Transmission in EMU: The Robustness of VAR Conclusions and Cecchetti’s Legal Family Theory

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  • Adam Elbourne
  • Jakob de Haan
  • Jakob de Haan

Abstract

We review studies on monetary transmission in the EU countries using the VAR approach and analyse why they often lead to divergent outcomes. Firstly, we estimate 43 VAR models across ten EU countries and compare the robustness of the ranking of the magnitudes of the price and output responses. The main specification differences between the VAR models are the use of two different sample periods; the inclusion of additional variables; and the use of recursive, long run, and structural identification schemes. Secondly, we calculate rank correlations between the output and price responses of a recursive VAR and a structural VAR to the financial structure indicators used by Cecchetti (1999), who argued that legal systems cause financial structure, which in turn causes asymmetric transmission. In contrast to Cecchetti, we find that there is little correlation.

Suggested Citation

  • Adam Elbourne & Jakob de Haan & Jakob de Haan, 2004. "Asymmetric Monetary Transmission in EMU: The Robustness of VAR Conclusions and Cecchetti’s Legal Family Theory," CESifo Working Paper Series 1327, CESifo.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1327
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    2. David Fielding & Kalvinder Shields, 2011. "Regional Asymmetries in the Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks on Prices: Evidence from US Cities," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 73(1), pages 79-103, February.
    3. Balázs Égert & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Transition Economies: Surveying the Surveyable," MNB Working Papers 2006/5, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    4. Adnen Chockri & Ibticem Frihka, 2011. "La portée de la politique de ciblage d’inflation: Approche analytique et empirique pour le cas Tunisien," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 58(1), pages 91-111, March.
    5. Ernst Juerg Weber, 2006. "Monetary policy in a heterogeneous monetary union: the Australian experience," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(21), pages 2487-2495.
    6. Ma, Yong & Lin, Xingkai, 2016. "Financial development and the effectiveness of monetary policy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 1-11.
    7. Zoë Venter, 2021. "Honing in on Housing," Working Papers REM 2021/0163, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    8. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Égert, Balázs & MacDonald, Ronald, 2006. "Monetary transmission mechanism in Central and Eastern Europe : gliding on a wind of change," BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2006, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    9. Fabrizio Coricelli & Balázs Égert & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Monetary Transmission in Central and Eastern Europe: Gliding on a Wind of Change," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 44-87.
    10. Pelinescu, Elena, 2012. "Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy in Romania. Insights into the Economic Crisis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 5-21, September.
    11. Jiménez-Rodríguez, Rebeca & Morales-Zumaquero, Amalia & Égert, Balázs, 2010. "The effect of foreign shocks in Central and Eastern Europe," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 461-477, July.
    12. Jason Jones & Nora Collins & Lauren Sribnick, 2012. "External Influences on Business Cycle Synchronization in the Euro Area," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 18(1), pages 28-39, February.
    13. Masagus M. Ridhwan & Henri L.F. de Groot & Peter Nijkamp, 2010. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on Economic Activity - Evidence from a Meta-Analysis," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-043/3, Tinbergen Institute.
    14. Elbourne, Adam & de Haan, Jakob, 2006. "Financial structure and monetary policy transmission in transition countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 1-23, March.
    15. Fabrizio Coricelli & Bal??zs ??gert & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Central & Eastern Europe: Gliding on a Wind of Change," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp850, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    16. Rebeca Jiménez-Rodriguez & Amalia Morales-Zumaquero & Balazs Egert, 2010. "The VARying Effect of Foreign Shocks in Central and Eastern Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series 3080, CESifo.
    17. Danny Pitzel & Lenno Uusküla, 2007. "The Effect of Financial Depth on Monetary Transmission," The IUP Journal of Monetary Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(2), pages 63-73, May.
    18. Kadria, Mohamed & Ben Aissa, Mohamed Safouane, 2014. "The inflation targeting policy in Tunisia? Between perception and reality," MPRA Paper 61442, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    monetary transmission; VAR models; EMU;
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