IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fce/doctra/0502.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Monetary policy transmission mechanisms in the CEECs: How important are the differences with the euro area?

Author

Abstract

We use a structural VAR model with short-term restrictions to investigate the relative importance of interest rate, exchange rate and credit channels in the monetary policy transmission (MPT) for the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland over 1993:1-2004:3. Main results are as follows. First, in the three countries, following a positive shock on the interest rate, prices increase instead of decreasing, due to the immediate depreciation of the nominal exchange rate. The results thus exhibit an "exchange rate" puzzle conducing to the appearance of a "price-puzzle". Second, none channel is very powerful for the MPT in the three countries. Nevertheless, the exchange rate and the interest rate channels play a growing role over the recent period in Poland, compared with the same channels in the Czech Republic and Hungary. As nominal exchange rate fluctuations allow for greater real shocks dampening in Poland, the cost of entering EMU may be more costly for this country than for the Czech Republic or Hungary.

Suggested Citation

  • Jerome Creel & Sandrine Levasseur, 2005. "Monetary policy transmission mechanisms in the CEECs: How important are the differences with the euro area?," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2005-02, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  • Handle: RePEc:fce:doctra:0502
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ofce.sciences-po.fr/pdf/dtravail/WP2005-02.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bonin, John & Wachtel, Paul, 2002. "Financial sector development in transition economies : Lessons from the first decade," BOFIT Discussion Papers 9/2002, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    2. Marek Jarocinski, 2010. "Responses to monetary policy shocks in the east and the west of Europe: a comparison," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(5), pages 833-868.
    3. Alessio Anzuini & Aviram Levy, 2004. "Financial structure and the transmission of monetary shocks: preliminary evidence for the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 514, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. Ekaterina Vostroknutova, 2003. "Polish Stabilization: What can we learn from the I(2) Cointegration Analysis?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 177-198, June.
    5. Sims, Christopher A., 1992. "Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts : The effects of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 975-1000, June.
    6. Angeloni,Ignazio & Kashyap,Anil K. & Mojon,Benoît (ed.), 2003. "Monetary Policy Transmission in the Euro Area," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521828642, March.
    7. Cottarelli, Carlo & Dell'Ariccia, Giovanni & Vladkova-Hollar, Ivanna, 2005. "Early birds, late risers, and sleeping beauties: Bank credit growth to the private sector in Central and Eastern Europe and in the Balkans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 83-104, January.
    8. László Halpern & Charles Wyplosz, 1997. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(4), pages 430-461, December.
    9. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148 Elsevier.
    10. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-921, September.
    11. Jérôme Creel & Sandrine Levasseur, 2004. "How would a fixed-exchange-rate regime fit the transition economies?. The cases of the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 91(5), pages 83-120.
    12. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148 Elsevier.
    13. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1999. "Legal structure, financial structure, and the monetary policy transmission mechanism," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 9-28.
    14. Peter van Els & Alberto Locarno & Benoît Mojon & Julian Morgan, 2003. "New Macroeconomic Evidence on Monetary Policy Transmission in the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(2-3), pages 720-730, 04/05.
    15. Giordani, Paolo, 2004. "An alternative explanation of the price puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, pages 1271-1296.
    16. Hanson, Michael S., 2004. "The "price puzzle" reconsidered," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1385-1413, October.
    17. Mojon, Benoît & Kashyap, Anil K. & Angeloni, Ignazio & Terlizzese, Daniele, 2002. "Monetary Transmission in the Euro Area : Where Do We Stand?," Working Paper Series 0114, European Central Bank.
    18. Ehrmann, Michael & Backé, Peter, 2003. "Monetary policy transmission in the euro area: any changes after EMU?," Working Paper Series 240, European Central Bank.
    19. Louis Kuijs, 2002. "Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanisms and Inflation in Slovakia," IMF Working Papers 02/80, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Georgy Ganev & Krisztina Molnar & Krzysztof Rybinski & Przemyslaw Wozniak, 2002. "Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy in Centraland Eastern Europe," CASE Network Reports 0052, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    21. FFF1Jitka NNN1Rychtarikova, 2004. "The case of the Czech Republic," Demographic Research Special Collections, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 2(5), pages 105-138, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jérôme Creel & Sandrine Levasseur, 2006. "Canaux de transmission de la politique monétaire dans l'ue. Le cas de trois nouveaux entrants," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 57(4), pages 881-898.
    2. Jérôme Héricourt & Iuliana Matei, 2007. "Transmission de la politique monétaire dans les pays d'E urope centrale et orientale : que savons-nous vraiment ?," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(4), pages 221-238.
    3. repec:agr:journl:v:2(591):y:2014:i:2(591):p:35-66 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Jérôme Héricourt, 2005. "Monetary policy transmission in the CEECs : revisited results using alternative econometrics," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques bla05020, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
    5. Magdalena Borys & Roman Horváth & Michal Franta, 2009. "The effects of monetary policy in the Czech Republic: an empirical study," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, pages 419-443.
    6. Arratibel, Olga & Michaelis, Henrike, 2013. "The Impact of Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Shocks in Poland: Evidence from a Time-Varying VAR," Discussion Papers in Economics 21088, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    7. Fabrizio Coricelli & Balázs Égert & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Monetary Transmission in Central and Eastern Europe: Gliding on a Wind of Change," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 44-87.
    8. Catherine Prettner & Klaus Prettner, 2012. " After Two Decades of Integration: How Interdependent are Eastern European Economies and the Euro Area?," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp138, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    9. Magdalena RADULESCU & Nicoleta DASCALU, 2009. "Monetary Transmission Channels in Romania – the Credit Channel," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 3, pages 77-88, December.
    10. repec:rej:journl:v:16:y:2013:i:47:p:57-74 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. repec:wsi:medjxx:v:04:y:2012:i:02:n:s1793812012500125 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. repec:jes:wpaper:y:2012:v:4:p:605-624 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Marek Jarocinski, 2010. "Responses to monetary policy shocks in the east and the west of Europe: a comparison," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(5), pages 833-868.
    14. Balázs Égert & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Transition Economies: Surveying the Surveyable," MNB Working Papers 2006/5, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    15. repec:cmj:journl:y:2013:i:28:rosoiua,rosoiui is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Jenny Koerner, 2015. "Monetary Transmission in the Czech Republic after the Transformation," Eastern European Business and Economics Journal, Eastern European Business and Economics Studies Centre, vol. 1(3), pages 19-47.
    17. Arratibel, Olga & Michaelis, Henrike, 2014. "The impact of monetary policy and exchange rate shocks in Poland: evidence from a time-varying VAR," Working Paper Series 1636, European Central Bank.
    18. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Égert, Balázs & MacDonald, Ronald, 2006. "Monetary transmission mechanism in Central and Eastern Europe : gliding on a wind of change," BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2006, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    19. Iulian Popescu, 2012. "Effects Of Monetary Policy In Romania - A Var Approach," CES Working Papers, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 4(3a), pages 605-624, September.
    20. Andreea ROŞOIU & Iulia ROŞOIU, 2013. "Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism In Emerging Countries," CrossCultural Management Journal, Fundația Română pentru Inteligența Afacerii, Editorial Department, issue 1, pages 37-49, May.
    21. Ziaei, Sayyed Mahdi, 2009. "Assess The Long Run Effects Of Monetary Policy On Bank lending,Foreign Asset and Liability In MENA Countries," MPRA Paper 14331, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Fabrizio Coricelli & Bal??zs ??gert & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Central & Eastern Europe: Gliding on a Wind of Change," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp850, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    23. Popescu, Iulia Vasile, 2012. "Effects of monetary policy in Romania. A VAR approach," MPRA Paper 41686, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Jimborean, Ramona, 2009. "The role of banks in the monetary policy transmission in the new EU member states," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 360-375, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy transmission; VAR models; exchange rate regimes;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fce:doctra:0502. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Francesco Saraceno). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/ofcspfr.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.