IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/78227.html

Analysis and evaluation of the Monetary Policy Transmission Channels in the CEMAC: A SVAR and SPVAR Approaches

Author

Listed:
  • BIKAI, J. Landry
  • KENKOUO, Guy Albert

Abstract

This paper’s main objective is to analyse and identify the the effects of monetary policy decisions on activity and inflation, and determines the main transmission channel in the CEMAC area. The results suggest that: (i) for each country, using a SVAR, the transmission mechanisms are very weak, and the common monetary policy has asymmetrical lagged effects on activity. We specifically found that the transmission mechanisms barely work in Congo, the Central African Republic, Gabon, Tchad and Equatorial Guinea, but a shock on broad money and the policy rate of the central bank has significant but weak effects on activity in Cameroon; and (ii) the Panel VAR analysis also confirms the weakness of the transmission mechanisms in the sub region. However, a positive shock on credit exhibits inflationary effects that last about three quarters.

Suggested Citation

  • BIKAI, J. Landry & KENKOUO, Guy Albert, 2015. "Analysis and evaluation of the Monetary Policy Transmission Channels in the CEMAC: A SVAR and SPVAR Approaches," MPRA Paper 78227, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:78227
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/78227/1/MPRA_paper_78227.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kenneth Rogoff, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-1189.
    2. Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 10(Win), pages 2-16.
    3. Jean-Paul Pollin, 2005. "Théorie de la politique monétaire : esquisses d'une refondation," Post-Print halshs-00287720, HAL.
    4. Christiano, Lawrence J, 2002. "Solving Dynamic Equilibrium Models by a Method of Undetermined Coefficients," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 20(1-2), pages 21-55, October.
    5. Xavier Debrun & Paul Masson & Catherine Pattillo, 2003. "West African Currency Unions: Rationale and Sustainability," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 49(3), pages 381-413.
    6. Calvo, Guillermo A, 1978. "On the Time Consistency of Optimal Policy in a Monetary Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1411-1428, November.
    7. Pierfederico Asdrubali & Bent E. Sørensen & Oved Yosha, 1996. "Channels of Interstate Risk Sharing: United States 1963–1990," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 111(4), pages 1081-1110.
    8. Torres,Francisco & Giavazzi,Francesco (ed.), 1993. "Adjustment and Growth in the European Monetary Union," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521440196, January.
    9. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148, Elsevier.
    10. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-921, September.
    11. Ms. Catherine A Pattillo & Mr. Paul R Masson, 2001. "Monetary Union in West Africa (ECOWAS)," IMF Occasional Papers 2001/003, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Lawrence J. Christiano & Lars Ljungqvist, 1987. "Money does Granger-cause output in the bivariate output-money relation," Staff Report 108, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    13. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    14. Cukierman Alex, 1992. "CENTRAL BANK STRATEGY, CREDIBILITY, AND INDEPENDANCE: THEORY AND EVIDENCE: Compte Rendu par Dominique Cariofillo," Journal des Economistes et des Etudes Humaines, De Gruyter, vol. 3(4), pages 581-590, December.
    15. Mr. Hamid R Davoodi & S. V. S. Dixit & Gabor Pinter, 2013. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the East African Community: An Empirical Investigation," IMF Working Papers 2013/039, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
    17. Frederic Mishkin & Christian Bordes & Pierre-Cyrille Hautcoeur & Dominique Lacoue-Labarthe, 2007. "Monnaie, banque et marchés financiers," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00308684, HAL.
    18. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1989. "Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 121-184, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Afonso, António & Furceri, Davide, 2008. "EMU enlargement, stabilization costs and insurance mechanisms," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 169-187, March.
    20. Galí, Jordi & Perotti, Roberto, 2003. "Fiscal Policy and Monetary Integration in Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 3933, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    21. Sims, Christopher A., 1992. "Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts : The effects of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 975-1000, June.
    22. Virginie Coudert & Benoît Mojon, 1997. "Asymétries financières et transmission de la politique monétaire en Europe," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 128(2), pages 41-60.
    23. Patrick Artus, 2003. "Désinflation par la politique monétaire ou désinflation par la politique de change ?," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 113(2), pages 255-272.
    24. Séverine Menguy, 2005. "Hétérogénéité structurelle des pays membres et conflit d'objectifs entre les autorités économiques dans l'UEM," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(3), pages 41-58.
    25. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1963. "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie63-1, January.
    26. Pierpaolo Benigno & Michael Woodford, 2004. "Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policy: A Linear-Quadratic Approach," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, pages 271-364, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. Georgy Ganev & Krisztina Molnar & Krzysztof Rybinski & Przemyslaw Wozniak, 2002. "Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy in Centraland Eastern Europe," CASE Network Reports 0052, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    28. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    29. Goodhart, Charles A. E., 1998. "The two concepts of money: implications for the analysis of optimal currency areas," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 407-432, August.
    30. Alexis Penot, 2002. "Appréciations et conséquences possibles de l'hétérogénéité structurelle de la zone euro," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 65(1), pages 153-175.
    31. Olivier Blanchard & Giovanni Dell’Ariccia & Paolo Mauro, 2010. "Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 199-215, September.
    32. Séverine Menguy, 2005. "Hétérogénéité structurelle des pays membres et conflit dobjectifs entre les autorités économiques dans l'UEM," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 169(3), pages 41-58.
    33. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
    34. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    35. Angeloni,Ignazio & Kashyap,Anil K. & Mojon,Benoît (ed.), 2003. "Monetary Policy Transmission in the Euro Area," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521828642, January.
    36. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    37. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    38. Jondeau, Eric & Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2008. "Testing heterogeneity within the euro area," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 192-196, April.
    39. Jean-Paul Pollin, 2005. "Théorie de la politique monétaire. Esquisses d'une refondation," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 56(3), pages 507-539.
    40. Fielding, David & Shields, Kalvinder, 2001. "Modelling macroeconomic shocks in the CFA Franc Zone," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 199-223, October.
    41. Peter van Els & Alberto Locarno & Benoît Mojon & Julian Morgan, 2003. "New Macroeconomic Evidence on Monetary Policy Transmission in the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(2-3), pages 720-730, 04/05.
    42. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1989. "Interpreting the evidence on money-income causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 161-181, January.
    43. Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1984. "Price Rigidities and Market Structure," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(2), pages 350-355, May.
    44. Mr. P. van den Boogaerde & Mr. Charalambos G Tsangarides, 2005. "Ten Years After the CFA Franc Devaluation: Progress Toward Regional Integration in the WAEMU," IMF Working Papers 2005/145, International Monetary Fund.
    45. Olivier Blanchard & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Paolo Mauro, 2010. "Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 199-215, September.
    46. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734.
    47. Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-552, September.
    48. Alex Cukierman, 1992. "Central Bank Strategy, Credibility, and Independence: Theory and Evidence," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262031981, December.
    49. Bikai, Landry, 2010. "Les Effets Non Lineaires Des Deficits Budgetaires Sur L´Activite Economique En Cemac [Threshold Effects of Budgetary Policy on Economic Growth in Cemac]," MPRA Paper 24524, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    50. Ehrmann, Michael & Backé, Peter, 2003. "Monetary policy transmission in the euro area: any changes after EMU?," Working Paper Series 240, European Central Bank.
    51. Mishra, Prachi & Montiel, Peter, 2013. "How effective is monetary transmission in low-income countries? A survey of the empirical evidence," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 187-216.
    52. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1995. "Does Monetary Policy Affect Real Economic Activity?: Why Do We Still Ask This Question?," NBER Working Papers 5212, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    53. Demertzis, Maria & Hallett, Andrew Hughes, 1998. "Asymmetric transmission mechanisms and the rise in European unemployment: A case of structural differences or of policy failures?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 869-886, June.
    54. Jordi Galí & Roberto Perotti, 2003. "Fiscal policy and monetary integration in Europe [‘Consumption smoothing through fiscal policy in OECD and EU countries’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 533-572.
    55. Mr. Andrew Berg & Ms. Luisa Charry & Mr. Rafael A Portillo & Mr. Jan Vlcek, 2013. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Tropics: A Narrative Approach," IMF Working Papers 2013/197, International Monetary Fund.
    56. David Romer, 1993. "The New Keynesian Synthesis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 5-22, Winter.
    57. David Fielding & Kalvinder Shields, 2005. "The Impact of Monetary Union on Macroeconomic Integration: Evidence from West Africa," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 72(288), pages 683-704, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:jaf:journl:v:10:y:2019:i:2:n:257 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Hassen GUENICHI & Hamdi KHALFAOUI, 2019. "Monetary policy and economic growth," Journal of Academic Finance, RED research unit, university of Gabes, Tunisia, vol. 10(2), pages 49-68, December.
    3. Marcel Takoulac Kamta & Desire Avom & Luc Nembot Ndeffo & Eric Mouchili Moumie, 2020. "Effect of Banking Concentration on Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism in Cameroon," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 8(2), pages 89-95, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Goto, Shingo, 2000. "The Fed's Effect on Excess Returns and Inflation is Much Bigger Than You Think," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt04f1z5hb, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    2. Mai, Nhat Chi, 2016. "Monetary policies and the macroeconomic performance of Vietnam," OSF Preprints akzy4, Center for Open Science.
    3. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95, February.
    4. Ramey, V.A., 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 71-162, Elsevier.
    5. Thomas Brand, 2017. "Vitesse et composition des ajustements budgétaires en équilibre général : une analyse appliquée à la zone euro," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 68(HS1), pages 159-182.
    6. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2009. "Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12777.
    7. repec:rza:wpaper:704 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. García, Carlos J. & González, Wildo D., 2013. "Exchange rate intervention in small open economies: The role of risk premium and commodity price shocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 424-447.
    9. Piyachart Phiromswad, 2014. "Measuring monetary policy with empirically grounded identifying restrictions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 681-699, March.
    10. van Holle, Frederiek, 2017. "Essays in empirical finance and monetary policy," Other publications TiSEM 30d11a4b-7bc9-4c81-ad24-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    11. Issing Otmar & Wieland Volker, 2013. "Monetary Theory and Monetary Policy: Reflections on the Development over the last 150 Years," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 233(3), pages 423-445, June.
    12. Rafiq, M.S. & Mallick, S.K., 2008. "The effect of monetary policy on output in EMU3: A sign restriction approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1756-1791, December.
    13. Michael Paetz, 2007. "Robust Control and Persistence in the New Keynesian Economy," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20711, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
    14. Tobias Cwik, 2012. "Fiscal consolidation using the example of Germany," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-80, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Schaumburg, Ernst & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2007. "An investigation of the gains from commitment in monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 302-324, March.
    16. Pedro Garcia Duarte, 2011. "Recent Developments in Macroeconomics: The DSGE Approach to Business Cycles in Perspective," Chapters, in: John B. Davis & D. Wade Hands (ed.), The Elgar Companion to Recent Economic Methodology, chapter 16, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    17. Giuseppe De Arcangelis & Giorgio Di Giorgio, 1999. "Monetary policy shocks and transmission in Italy: A VAR analysis," Economics Working Papers 446, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    18. Masciandaro, Donato & Romelli, Davide, 2015. "Ups and downs of central bank independence from the Great Inflation to the Great Recession: theory, institutions and empirics," Financial History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(3), pages 259-289, December.
    19. Wieland, Volker & Cwik, Tobias & Müller, Gernot J. & Schmidt, Sebastian & Wolters, Maik, 2012. "A new comparative approach to macroeconomic modeling and policy analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 523-541.
    20. Tamim Bayoumi & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Karl F Habermeier & Tommaso Mancini Griffoli & Fabian Valencia, 2014. "Monetary Policy in the New Normal," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 14/3, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Guangling (Dave) Liu, 2013. "Will the Sarb always Succeed in Fighting Inflation with Contractionary Policy?," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 81(3), pages 330-345, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • P24 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:78227. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.