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Money does Granger-cause output in the bivariate output-money relation

Author

Listed:
  • Lawrence J. Christiano
  • Lars Ljungqvist

Abstract

A bivariate Granger-causality test on money and output finds statistically significant causality when data are measured in log levels, but not when they are measured in first differences of the logs. Which of these results is right? The answer to that question matters because a finding of no Granger-causality from money to output would substantially embarrass existing business cycle models in which money plays an important role [Eichenbaum and Singleton (1986)]. Monte Carlo simulation experiments indicate that, most probably, the first difference results reflect lack of power, whereas the level results reflect Granger-causality that is actually in the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Lawrence J. Christiano & Lars Ljungqvist, 1987. "Money does Granger-cause output in the bivariate output-money relation," Staff Report 108, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:108
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1990. "Unit roots in real GNP: Do we know, and do we care?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 7-61, January.
    2. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-921, September.
    3. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Robert Vigfusson, 2003. "What Happens After a Technology Shock?," NBER Working Papers 9819, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Todd, Richard M., 2002. "The conventional treatment of seasonality in business cycle analysis: does it create distortions?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 335-364, March.
    5. F. Barran & V. Coudert & B. Mojon, 1997. "Interest rates, banking spreads and credit supply: the real effects," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 107-136.
    6. Lawrence J. Christiano, 1987. "Why is consumption less volatile than income?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 2-20.
    7. Yash P. Mehra, 1987. "Velocity and the variability of money growth: evidence from Granger- causality tests reevaluated," Working Paper 87-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    8. Bernd Hayo, 1999. "Money-output Granger causality revisited: an empirical analysis of EU countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(11), pages 1489-1501.
    9. Norman R. Swanson, 2000. "An Out of Sample Test for Granger Causality," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0362, Econometric Society.
    10. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2003. "How do Canadian hours worked respond to a technology shock?," International Finance Discussion Papers 774, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1987. "Interpreting Evidence on Money-Income Causality," NBER Working Papers 2228, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. James B. Bullard, 1991. "The FOMC in 1990: onset of recession," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 31-53.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary theory ; Money theory;

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