IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/moneco/v49y2002i2p335-364.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The conventional treatment of seasonality in business cycle analysis: does it create distortions?

Author

Listed:
  • Christiano, Lawrence J.
  • Todd, Richard M.

Abstract

'No.' So says one model that is broadly consistent with postwar U.S. seasonal and business cycle data.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Christiano, Lawrence J. & Todd, Richard M., 2002. "The conventional treatment of seasonality in business cycle analysis: does it create distortions?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 335-364, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:49:y:2002:i:2:p:335-364
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304-3932(01)00112-X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chistiano, Lawrence J & den Haan, Wouter J, 1996. "Small-Sample Properties of GMM for Business-Cycle Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(3), pages 309-327, July.
    2. Ghysels, E. & Hall, A. & Lee, H.S., 1995. "On Periodic Structures and Testing for Seasonal Unit Roots," Cahiers de recherche 9518, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    3. Watson, Mark W, 1993. "Measures of Fit for Calibrated Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(6), pages 1011-1041, December.
    4. Hansen, Gary D., 1985. "Indivisible labor and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 309-327, November.
    5. Plosser, Charles I., 1979. "The analysis of seasonal economic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 147-163, June.
    6. Hansen, G D, 1993. "The Cyclical and Secular Behaviour of the Labour Input: Comparing Efficiency Units and Hours Worked," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 71-80, Jan.-Marc.
    7. Franses, Philip Hans & Hoek, Henk & Paap, Richard, 1997. "Bayesian analysis of seasonal unit roots and seasonal mean shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 359-380, June.
    8. Benhabib, Jess & Rogerson, Richard & Wright, Randall, 1991. "Homework in Macroeconomics: Household Production and Aggregate Fluctuations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(6), pages 1166-1187, December.
    9. Hylleberg, Svend & Jorgensen, Clara & Sorensen, Nils Karl, 1993. "Seasonality in Macroeconomic Time Series," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 321-335.
    10. Christiano, Lawrence J, 1990. "Linear-Quadratic Approximation and Value-Function Iteration: A Comparison," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(1), pages 99-113, January.
    11. Canova, Fabio & Ghysels, Eric, 1994. "Changes in seasonal patterns : Are they cyclical?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 1143-1171, November.
    12. Ghysels, Eric & Granger, Clive W J & Siklos, Pierre L, 1996. "Is Seasonal Adjustment a Linear or Nonlinear Data-Filtering Process?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(3), pages 374-386, July.
    13. Cecchetti, Stephen G & Kashyap, Anil K & Wilcox, David W, 1997. "Interactions between the Seasonal and Business Cycles in Production and Inventories," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(5), pages 884-892, December.
    14. Hylleberg, S. & Pagan, A. R., 1997. "Seasonal integration and the evolving seasonals model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 329-340, September.
    15. Braun, R. Anton & Evans, Charles L., 1995. "Seasonality and equilibrium business cycle theories," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 503-531, April.
    16. Ghysels, Eric, 1994. "On the Periodic Structure of the Business Cycle," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 289-298, July.
    17. Beaulieu, J Joseph & Miron, Jeffrey A, 1992. "A Cross Country Comparison of Seasonal Cycles and Business Cycles," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(413), pages 772-788, July.
    18. Lawrence J. Christiano & Lars Ljungqvist, 1987. "Money does Granger-cause output in the bivariate output-money relation," Staff Report 108, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    19. Franses, Philip Hans & Paap, Richard, 1994. "Model Selection in Periodic Autoregressions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 56(4), pages 421-439, November.
    20. Eric Ghysels & Robert E. McCulloch & Ruey S. Tsay, 1998. "Bayesian inference for periodic regime-switching models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(2), pages 129-143.
    21. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    22. Boswijk, H Peter & Franses, Philip Hans, 1995. "Periodic Cointegration: Representation and Inference," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(3), pages 436-454, August.
    23. King, Robert G. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1993. "Low frequency filtering and real business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 207-231.
    24. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    25. Michael C. Lovell, 1963. "Seasonal Adjustment of Economic Time Series and Multiple Regression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 151, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    26. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Ljungqvist, Lars, 1988. "Money does Granger-cause output in the bivariate money-output relation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 217-235, September.
    27. Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1992. "Current Real-Business-Cycle Theories and Aggregate Labor-Market Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 430-450, June.
    28. Peter Boswijk, H. & Franses, Philip Hans, 1995. "Testing for periodic integration," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(3-4), pages 241-248, June.
    29. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 1993. "Seasonality and approximation errors in rational expectations models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1-2), pages 21-55.
    30. Singleton, Kenneth J., 1988. "Econometric issues in the analysis of equilibrium business cycle models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 361-386.
    31. Ghysels, E., 1990. "On the Economic and Econometrics of Seasonality," Cahiers de recherche 9028, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    32. Lawrence J. Christiano & Richard M. Todd, 1996. "Time to plan and aggregate fluctuations," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 14-27.
    33. Agustín Maravall, 1996. "Unobserved Components in Economic Time Series," Working Papers 9609, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    34. Barsky, Robert B & Miron, Jeffrey A, 1989. "The Seasonal Cycle and the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 503-534, June.
    35. Franses, Philip Hans & Hylleberg, Svend & Lee, Hahn S., 1995. "Spurious deterministic seasonality," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(3-4), pages 249-256, June.
    36. Sims, Christopher A., 1993. "Rational expectations modeling with seasonally adjusted data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1-2), pages 9-19.
    37. Braun, R Anton & Evans, Charles L, 1998. "Seasonal Solow Residuals and Christmas: A Case for Labor Hoarding and Increasing Returns," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(3), pages 306-330, August.
    38. Ellen R. McGrattan, 1994. "A progress report on business cycle models," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 2-16.
    39. Grether, D M & Nerlove, M, 1970. "Some Properties of 'Optimal' Seasonal Adjustment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 38(5), pages 682-703, September.
    40. Richard Paap & Philip Hans Franses, 1999. "On trends and constants in periodic autoregressions," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 271-286.
    41. Ghysels, E., 1986. "A Study Towards a Dynamic Theory of Seasonality for Economic Time Series," Cahiers de recherche 8612, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    42. Gary D. Hansen & Randall Wright, 1992. "The labor market in real business cycle theory," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 2-12.
    43. Christiano, Lawrence J., 1988. "Why does inventory investment fluctuate so much?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 247-280.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2003. "Maximum likelihood in the frequency domain: the importance of time-to-plan," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 789-815, May.
    2. Antonio Matas-Mir & Denise R. Osborn & Marco J. Lombardi, 2008. "The effect of seasonal adjustment on the properties of business cycle regimes," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(2), pages 257-278.
    3. Serguei Maliar & John Taylor & Lilia Maliar, 2016. "The Impact of Alternative Transitions to Normalized Monetary Policy," 2016 Meeting Papers 794, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Lilia Maliar & Serguei Maliar & John B. Taylor & Inna Tsener, 2015. "A Tractable Framework for Analyzing a Class of Nonstationary Markov Models," Economics Working Papers 15105, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    5. A Matas-Mir & D R Osborn, 2003. "Seasonal Adjustment and the Detection of Business Cycle Phases," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0304, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    6. Jung, Yong-Gook, 2013. "An inference about the length of the time-to-build period," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 42-54.
    7. Saijo, Hikaru, 2013. "Estimating DSGE models using seasonally adjusted and unadjusted data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 173(1), pages 22-35.
    8. Wen, Yi, 2002. "The business cycle effects of Christmas," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1289-1314, September.
    9. Yong-gook Jung, 2013. "A new strategy to estimate time-to-build completion rates," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(2), pages 1073-1081.
    10. Edge, Rochelle M., 2007. "Time-to-build, time-to-plan, habit-persistence, and the liquidity effect," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 1644-1669, September.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C0 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General
    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:49:y:2002:i:2:p:335-364. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505566 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.