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Model Selection In Periodic Autoregressions

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  • Philip Hans Franses
  • Richard Paap

Abstract

In this paper, the authors analyze a model selection strategy for periodic autoregressive time-series processes. It involves autoregressive order selection and tests for unit roots at the (non-)seasonal frequencies. The strategy is evaluated using Monte Carlo replications and it is applied to several quarterly U.K. macroeconomic time series. Copyright 1994 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd
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Suggested Citation

  • Philip Hans Franses & Richard Paap, 1994. "Model Selection In Periodic Autoregressions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 56(4), pages 421-439, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:56:y:1994:i:4:p:421-439
    DOI: j.1468-0084.1994.tb00018.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Novales, Alfonso & de Fruto, Rafael Flores, 1997. "Forecasting with periodic models A comparison with time invariant coefficient models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 393-405, September.
    2. Fantazzini, Dean & Toktamysova, Zhamal, 2015. "Forecasting German car sales using Google data and multivariate models," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(PA), pages 97-135.
    3. Tomas Barrio Castro & Mariam Camarero & Cecilio Tamarit, 2015. "An analysis of the trade balance for OECD countries using periodic integration and cointegration," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 389-402, September.
    4. Clements, Michael & Smith, Jeremy, 1997. "Forecasting Seasonal Uk Consumption Components," Economic Research Papers 268761, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    5. Albertson, Kevin & Aylen, Jonathan, 2003. "Forecasting the behaviour of manufacturing inventory," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 299-311.
    6. Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Paap, R., 1999. "Forecasting with periodic autoregressive time series models," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9927-/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    7. Breitung, Jorg & Franses, Philip Hans, 1997. "Impulse response functions for periodic integration," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 35-40, August.
    8. Franses, Philip Hans & Paap, Richard, 1995. "Moving average filters and periodic integration," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 245-249.
    9. Pami Dua & Lokendra Kumawat, 2005. "Modelling and Forecasting Seasonality in Indian Macroeconomic Time Series," Working papers 136, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    10. Philip Hans Franses & Richard Paap, 2011. "Random‐coefficient periodic autoregressions," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 65(1), pages 101-115, February.
    11. Eiji Kurozumi, 2002. "Testing For Periodic Stationarity," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 243-270.
    12. Albertson, Kevin & Aylen, Jonathan, 1996. "Modelling the Great Lakes freeze: forecasting and seasonality in the market for ferrous scrap," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 345-359, September.
    13. Evans, Mark, 2006. "A study of the relationship between regional ferrous scrap prices in the USA, 1958-2004," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 65-77, June.
    14. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Todd, Richard M., 2002. "The conventional treatment of seasonality in business cycle analysis: does it create distortions?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 335-364, March.
    15. Herwartz, Helmut, 1997. "Performance of periodic error correction models in forecasting consumption data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 421-431, September.
    16. Wells, J. M., 1997. "Modelling seasonal patterns and long-run trends in U.S. time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 407-420, September.
    17. Sarnaglia, A.J.Q. & Reisen, V.A. & Lévy-Leduc, C., 2010. "Robust estimation of periodic autoregressive processes in the presence of additive outliers," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 101(9), pages 2168-2183, October.
    18. Franses, Philip Hans & McAleer, Michael, 1997. "Testing periodically integrated autoregressive models," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 457-465.
    19. Franses, Philip Hans & Ooms, Marius, 1997. "A periodic long-memory model for quarterly UK inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 117-126, March.
    20. Boswijk, H. Peter & Franses, Philip Hans & Haldrup, Niels, 1997. "Multiple unit roots in periodic autoregression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 167-193, September.

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