Forecasting with periodic autoregressive time series models
This paper is concerned with forecasting univariate seasonal time series data using periodic autoregressive models. We show how one should account for unit roots and deterministic terms when generating out-of-sample forecasts. We illustrate the models for various quarterly UK consumption series.
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- Wells, J. M., 1997. "Modelling seasonal patterns and long-run trends in U.S. time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 407-420, September.
- Novales, Alfonso & de Fruto, Rafael Flores, 1997. "Forecasting with periodic models A comparison with time invariant coefficient models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 393-405, September.
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- Franses, Philip Hans & Paap, Richard, 1994.
"Model Selection in Periodic Autoregressions,"
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Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 56(4), pages 421-439, November.
- Philip Hans Franses & Richard Paap, 1994. "Model Selection In Periodic Autoregressions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 56(4), pages 421-439, November.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- Ghysels, Eric & Lee, Hahn S. & Noh, Jaesum, 1994. "Testing for unit roots in seasonal time series : Some theoretical extensions and a Monte Carlo investigation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 415-442, June.
- Herwartz, Helmut, 1997. "Performance of periodic error correction models in forecasting consumption data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 421-431, September.
- Boswijk, H. Peter & Franses, Philip Hans & Haldrup, Niels, 1997. "Multiple unit roots in periodic autoregression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 167-193, September.
- Osborn, Denise R., 1991. "The implications of periodically varying coefficients for seasonal time-series processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 373-384, June.
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
- Osborn, Denise R, 1988. "Seasonality and Habit Persistence in a Life Cycle Model of Consumptio n," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(4), pages 255-266, October-D. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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