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An analysis of the trade balance for OECD countries using periodic integration and cointegration

  • Tomas del Barrio Castro

    (Department of Applied Economics, University of the Balearic Islands)

  • Mariam Camarero

    (Deparment of Economics, Universitat Jaume I)

  • Cecilio Tamarit

    (Department of Applied Economics II, University of Valencia)

We analyze imbalances in external accounts that have historically a¤ected most developed countries. The purpose of this study is to shed some light on the sus- tainability of the current account for a group of OECD countires by merging the popular Husted (1992) testing procedure with recent econometric analysis dealing with seasonality. A necessary condition for current account sustainability is that exports and imports are cointegrated. Following previous empirical studies (Husted (1992), Arize (2002) and Hamori (2009)) we analyze the long-run relationship link- ing exports and imports, using quarterly data. In contrast to these studies, we explicitly deal with seasonal e¤ects through the use of periodic integration and cointegration and nd a long-run relationship for the majority of the countries.

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Paper provided by Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia in its series Working Papers with number 1320.

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Length: 18 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:eec:wpaper:1320
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  2. Johansen, Soren & Schaumburg, Ernst, 1998. "Likelihood analysis of seasonal cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 301-339, November.
  3. Fountas Stilianos & Wu Jyh-Lin, 1999. "Are the U.S. Current Account Deficits Really Sustainable?," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 51-58.
  4. Franses, Philip Hans & Paap, Richard, 2004. "Periodic Time Series Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199242030, July.
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  7. Shigeyuki Hamori, 2009. "The sustainability of trade accounts of the G-7 countries," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(17), pages 1691-1694.
  8. Kenneth D. West & Whitney K. Newey, 1995. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," NBER Technical Working Papers 0144, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Manuchehr Irandoust & Johan Ericsson, 2004. "Are Imports and Exports Cointegrated? An International Comparison," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(1), pages 49-64, 02.
  10. Osborn, Denise R, et al, 1988. "Seasonality and the Order of Integration for Consumption," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 50(4), pages 361-77, November.
  11. Osborn, Denise R, 1988. "Seasonality and Habit Persistence in a Life Cycle Model of Consumptio n," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(4), pages 255-66, October-D.
  12. Sargan, John Denis & Bhargava, Alok, 1983. "Testing Residuals from Least Squares Regression for Being Generated by the Gaussian Random Walk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(1), pages 153-74, January.
  13. Ramos, Francisco F. Ribeiro, 2001. "Exports, imports, and economic growth in Portugal: evidence from causality and cointegration analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 613-623, December.
  14. Ghysels,Eric & Osborn,Denise R., 2001. "The Econometric Analysis of Seasonal Time Series," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521562607.
  15. Irandoust Manuchehr & Sjoo Boo, 2000. "The Behavior of the Current Account in Response to Unobservable and Observable Shocks," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 41-57.
  16. Abeysinghe, Tilak, 1994. "Deterministic seasonal models and spurious regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 259-272, April.
  17. Dierk Herzer & Nowak-Lehmann Felicitas, 2006. "Is there a long-run relationship between exports and imports in Chile?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(15), pages 981-986.
  18. Boswijk, H Peter & Franses, Philip Hans, 1995. "Periodic Cointegration: Representation and Inference," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(3), pages 436-54, August.
  19. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 1993. "Seasonality and approximation errors in rational expectations models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1-2), pages 21-55.
  20. Kunst, Robert M., 2009. "A Nonparametric Test for Seasonal Unit Roots," Economics Series 233, Institute for Advanced Studies.
  21. del Barrio Castro Tomás & Osborn Denise R, 2011. "Nonparametric Tests for Periodic Integration," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-35, February.
  22. Arize, Augustine C., 2002. "Imports and exports in 50 countries: Tests of cointegration and structural breaks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 101-115, April.
  23. Olekalns, Nilss, 1994. "Testing for unit roots in seasonally adjusted data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 273-279.
  24. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Seema Narayan, 2005. "Are exports and imports cointegrated? Evidence from 22 least developed countries," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(6), pages 375-378.
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