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Small-Sample Properties of GMM for Business-Cycle Analysis

  • Chistiano, Lawrence J
  • den Haan, Wouter J

The authors investigate, by Monte Carlo methods, the finite sample properties of generalized method of moments procedures for conducting inference about statistics that are of interest in the business cycle literature. These statistics include the second moments of data filtered using the first difference and Hodrick-Prescott filters, and they include statistics for evaluating model fit. The authors' results indicate that, for the procedures considered, the existing asymptotic theory is not a good guide in a sample the size of quarterly postwar U.S. data.

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Article provided by American Statistical Association in its journal Journal of Business and Economic Statistics.

Volume (Year): 14 (1996)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Pages: 309-27

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Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:14:y:1996:i:3:p:309-27
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  20. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(4), pages 631-653.
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  22. Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M., 1995. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series Implications for business cycle research," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 253-278.
  23. Cecchetti, Stephen G. & Lam, Pok-sang & Mark, Nelson C., 1993. "The equity premium and the risk-free rate : Matching the moments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 21-45, February.
  24. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sergio, 1993. "Labor Hoarding and the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(2), pages 245-73, April.
  25. Wouter J. Den Haan & Albert Marcet, 1994. "Accuracy in Simulations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(1), pages 3-17.
  26. R. Anton Braun & Charles L. Evans, 1996. "Seasonal Solow residuals and Christmas: a case for labor hoarding and increasing returns," Working Papers 575, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  27. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1995. "Measuring Business Cycles Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series," NBER Working Papers 5022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  28. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & George R. Moore & Scott Schuh, 1993. "Estimating the linear-quadratic inventory model: maximum likelihood versus generalized method of moments," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 93-11, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  29. Ogaki, M., 1992. "An Introduction to the Generalized Method of Moments," RCER Working Papers 314, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  30. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
  31. David K. Backus & Allan W. Gregory & Stanley E. Zin, 1986. "Risk Premiums in the Term Structure : Evidence from Artificial Economies," Working Papers 665, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  32. Ericsson, Neil R, 1991. "Monte Carlo Methodology and the Finite Sample Properties of Instrumental Variables Statistics for Testing Nested and Non-nested Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(5), pages 1249-77, September.
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  34. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-53, October.
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  39. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  40. Marshall, David A, 1992. " Inflation and Asset Returns in a Monetary Economy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1315-42, September.
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