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Does Labor Supply Matter During a Recession? Evidence from the Seasonal Cycle

  • Casey B. Mulligan

Every year has large demand and supply shifts associated with the seasons, regardless of the phase of the business cycle. Based on measures dating back to the 1940s, the seasonal shifts reject the hypotheses that demand shifts affect employment outcomes significantly more in recession years than in non-recession years, and that supply shifts matter significantly less (if at all) in the recession years. My results are consistent with the hypothesis that recessions are characterized by labor market distortions that are neither alleviated by additional labor demand nor exacerbated by additional labor supply.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w16357.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 16357.

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Date of creation: Sep 2010
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16357
Note: EFG LS
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  1. D R Osborn & A Matas-Mir, 2001. "Does Seasonality Change over the Business Cycle? An Investigation using Monthly Industrial Production Series," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 09, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  2. Barsky, Robert B & Miron, Jeffrey A, 1989. "The Seasonal Cycle and the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 503-34, June.
  3. S. Krane & W. Wascher, 1999. "The cyclical sensitivity of seasonality in US employment," BIS Working Papers 67, Bank for International Settlements.
  4. Jeffrey A. Miron, 1990. "The Economics of Seasonal Cycles," NBER Working Papers 3522, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 1-27, May.
  6. Casey B. Mulligan, 2009. "Means-Tested Mortgage Modification: Homes Saved or Income Destroyed?," NBER Working Papers 15281, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Michael Woodford, 2011. "Simple Analytics of the Government Expenditure Multiplier," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 1-35, January.
  8. Alberto F. Alesina & Silvia Ardagna, 2009. "Large Changes in Fiscal Policy: Taxes Versus Spending," NBER Working Papers 15438, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Gauti Eggertsson, 2010. "The paradox of toil," Staff Reports 433, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  10. Casey B. Mulligan, 2010. "Simple Analytics and Empirics of the Government Spending Multiplier and Other "Keynesian" Paradoxes," NBER Working Papers 15800, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Patricia M. Anderson & Simon M. Burgess, 2000. "Empirical Matching Functions: Estimation and Interpretation Using State-Level Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 93-102, February.
  12. Robert J. Barro & Charles J. Redlick, 2011. "Macroeconomic Effects From Government Purchases and Taxes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 126(1), pages 51-102.
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