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Does Seasonality Change over the Business Cycle? An Investigation using Monthly Industrial Production Series

Listed author(s):
  • Matas-Mir, Antoni

    (University of Manchester)

  • Denise R Osborn

This paper examines the proposition that the business cycle affects seasonality in industrial production, with output being switched to the traditionally low production summer months when recent (annual) growth has been strong. This is investigated through the use of a restricted threshold autoregressive model for the monthly growth rate in a total of 74 industries from 16 OECD countries. Approximately one third of the series exhibit significant nonlinearity, with this nonlinearity predominantly associated with changes in the seasonal pattern. Estimates show that the summer slowdown in many European countries is substantially reduced when recent growth has been high.

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Paper provided by Royal Economic Society in its series Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 with number 139.

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Date of creation: 29 Aug 2002
Handle: RePEc:ecj:ac2002:139
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