IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cwl/cwldpp/1028.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

On the Periodic Structure of the Business Cycle

Author

Abstract

In this paper, we test whether a regime shift from expansion to recession and vice versa is, ceteris paribus, equally likely throughout the year. If not, then it may, for instance, be less likely to get out of a recession in the middle of the winter than it is, say, in the spring or summer. We make use of Markov switching regime models to test the hypothesis of interest. The evidence is based on the conventional NBER business cycle chronology as well as alternatives to it. We find that recessions exhibit a periodic pattern in their switching regime transition probability structure. It is particularly the months associated with Christmas and spring that appear to have higher switching probabilities from recession to expansion. Our results also imply that a recession and an expansion are, on average, longer or shorter depending on what time of the year they start. Such results suggest the presence of seasonal patterns in business cycle durations. One should note though that such a notion of seasonality is quite different from the common one based on unobserved component linear time series models. Our paper investigates issues which go beyond linear dependence between seasonality and business cycles.

Suggested Citation

  • Eric Ghysels, 1992. "On the Periodic Structure of the Business Cycle," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1028, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  • Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1028
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cowles.yale.edu/sites/default/files/files/pub/d10/d1028.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1992. "Have Postwar Economic Fluctuations Been Stabilized?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 993-1005, September.
    2. Watson, Mark W, 1994. "Business-Cycle Durations and Postwar Stabilization of the U.S. Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 24-46, March.
    3. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1989. "Scoring the Leading Indicators," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(3), pages 369-391, July.
    4. Hylleberg, Svend, 1986. "Seasonality in Regression," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 1, number 9780123634559 edited by Shell, Karl, December.
    5. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 1993. "Recursive linear models of dynamic economies," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
    6. Wecker, William E, 1979. "Predicting the Turning Points of a Time Series," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 52(1), pages 35-50, January.
    7. Bell, William R & Hillmer, Steven C, 1984. "Issues Involved with the Seasonal Adjustment of Economic Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 2(4), pages 291-320, October.
    8. Ghysels, Eric & Hall, Alastair, 1990. "Are consumption-based intertemporal capital asset pricing models structural?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 121-139.
    9. Ghysels, E., 1991. "Are Business Cycle Turning Points Uniformly Distributed Throughout the Year?," Cahiers de recherche 9135, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    10. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989. "New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Ghysels, E., 1992. "Charistmas, Spring and the Dawning of Economic Recovery," Cahiers de recherche 9215, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    12. Nerlove, Marc & Grether, David M. & Carvalho, José L., 1979. "Analysis of Economic Time Series," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 1, number 9780125157506 edited by Shell, Karl, December.
    13. McCulloch, J Hutson, 1975. "The Monte Carlo Cycle in Business Activity," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 13(3), pages 303-321, September.
    14. Thomas J. Sargent & Christopher A. Sims, 1977. "Business cycle modeling without pretending to have too much a priori economic theory," Working Papers 55, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    15. Osborn, Denise R & Smith, Jeremy P, 1989. "The Performance of Periodic Autoregressive Models in Forecasting Seasonal U. K. Consumption," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(1), pages 117-127, January.
    16. Savin, N Eugene, 1977. "A Test of the Monte Carlo Hypothesis: Comment," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 15(4), pages 613-617, October.
    17. Victor Zarnowitz, 1963. "Cloos on Reference Dates and Leading Indicators: A Comment," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36, pages 461-461.
    18. Neftci, Salih N, 1984. "Are Economic Time Series Asymmetric over the Business Cycle?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(2), pages 307-328, April.
    19. Osborn, Denise R, 1988. "Seasonality and Habit Persistence in a Life Cycle Model of Consumptio n," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(4), pages 255-266, October-D.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ghysels, E., 1992. "Charistmas, Spring and the Dawning of Economic Recovery," Cahiers de recherche 9215, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    2. Ghysels, E., 1993. "A Time Series Model with Periodic Stochastic Regime Switching," Cahiers de recherche 9314, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    3. Bollerslev, Tim & Ghysels, Eric, 1996. "Periodic Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(2), pages 139-151, April.
    4. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1996. "Measuring Business Cycles: A Modern Perspective," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 67-77, February.
    5. Ghysels, Eric, 1997. "On seasonality and business cycle durations: A nonparametric investigation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 269-290, August.
    6. McKay, Alisdair & Reis, Ricardo, 2008. "The brevity and violence of contractions and expansions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 738-751, May.
    7. Yorghos Tripodis & Jeremy Penzer, 2009. "Modelling time series with season-dependent autocorrelation structure," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(7), pages 559-574.
    8. Marco Del Negro, 2001. "Turn, turn, turn: Predicting turning points in economic activity," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 86(Q2), pages 1-12.
    9. Jeffrey A. Miron, 1996. "The Economics of Seasonal Cycles," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262133237.
    10. Richard M. Todd, 1989. "Periodic linear-quadratic methods for modeling seasonality," Staff Report 127, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    11. Alejandro R. Pena Sanchez, 2004. "El ciclo económico en Uruguay - Un modelo de Switching Regimes," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 111, Econometric Society.
    12. Carriero, Andrea & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2007. "A comparison of methods for the construction of composite coincident and leading indexes for the UK," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 219-236.
    13. Duo Qin, 2010. "Econometric Studies of Business Cycles in the History of Econometrics," Working Papers 669, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    14. Krane, Spencer & Wascher, William, 1999. "The cyclical sensitivity of seasonality in U.S. employment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 523-553, December.
    15. Tim Bollerslev & Eric Ghysels, 1994. "On Periodic Autogressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity," CIRANO Working Papers 94s-03, CIRANO.
    16. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 475-512, May.
    17. Travis D. Nesmith, 2006. "Rational seasonality," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-04, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    18. Enrique López Enciso, 2019. "Dos tradiciones en la medición del ciclo: historia general y desarrollos en Colombia," Tiempo y Economía, Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano, vol. 6(1), pages 77-142, February.
    19. Catherine Doz & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2012. "A Quasi–Maximum Likelihood Approach for Large, Approximate Dynamic Factor Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 1014-1024, November.
    20. Daniel M. Chin & John F. Geweke & Preston J. Miller, 2000. "Predicting turning points," Staff Report 267, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1028. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cowleus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Matthew Regan (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cowleus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.