IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Bayesian inference for periodic regime-switching models

  • Eric Ghysels

    (Department of Economics, Pennsylvania State University, 608 Kern Graduate Building, University Park, PA 16802-3306, USA and Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en analyse des organizations (CIRANO), Montréal, Québec H3A 2A5, Canada)

  • Robert E. McCulloch

    (Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL. 60637, USA)

  • Ruey S. Tsay

    (Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL. 60637, USA)

We present a general class of nonlinear time-series Markov regime-switching models for seasonal data which may exhibit periodic features in the hidden Markov process as well as in the laws of motion in each of the regimes. This class of models allows for non-trivial dependencies between seasonal, cyclical and long-term patterns in the data. To overcome the computational burden we adopt a Bayesian approach to estimation and inference. This paper contains two empirical examples as illustration, one uses housing starts data while the other employs US post-Second World War industrial production. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://qed.econ.queensu.ca:80/jae/1998-v13.2/
File Function: Supporting data files and programs
Download Restriction: no

Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 13 (1998)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 129-143

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:13:y:1998:i:2:p:129-143
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/0883-7252/

Order Information: Web: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/jcatalog/subscribe.jsp?issn=0883-7252 Email:


References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Goldfeld, Stephen M. & Quandt, Richard E., 1973. "A Markov model for switching regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 3-15, March.
  2. Ghysels, Eric, 1994. "On the Periodic Structure of the Business Cycle," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 289-98, July.
  3. Neftci, Salih N, 1984. "Are Economic Time Series Asymmetric over the Business Cycle?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(2), pages 307-28, April.
  4. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  5. Ghysels, E., 1993. "A Time Series Model with Periodic Stochastic Regime Switching," Cahiers de recherche 9314, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:13:y:1998:i:2:p:129-143. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)

or (Christopher F. Baum)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.