The Vanishing Role of Money in the Macroeconomy - An Empirical Investigation Based On Spectral and Wavelet Analysis
The recent de-emphasizing of the role of money in both theoretical macroeconomics as well as in the practical conduct of monetary policy sits uneasily with the idea that inflation is a monetary phenomenon. Empirical evidence has, however, been accumulating, pointing to an important leading indicator role for money and credit aggregates with respect to long term inflationary trends. Such a role could arise from monetary aggregates furnishing a nominal anchor for inflationary expectations, from their influence on the term structure of interest rates and from their affecting transactions costs in markets. Our paper attempts to assess the informational content role of money in the Indian economy by a separation of these effects across time scales and frequency bands, using the techniques of wavelet analysis and band spectral analysis respectively. Our results indicate variability of causal relations across frequency ranges and time scales, as also occasional causal reversals.
|Date of creation:||Jan 2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: JG Crawford Building #13, Asia Pacific School of Economics and Government, Australian National University, ACT 0200|
Web page: http://www.eaber.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- S. Rao Aiyagari & R. Anton Braun & Zvi Eckstein, 1998.
"Transaction Services, Inflation, and Welfare,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(6), pages 1274-1301, December.
- Aiyagari, S.R. & Braum, T. & Eckstein, Z., 1995. "Transaction Services, Inflation and Welfare," Papers 27-95, Tel Aviv - the Sackler Institute of Economic Studies.
- S. Rao Aiyagari & R. Anton Braun & Zvi Eckstein, 1998. "Transaction services, inflation, and welfare," Staff Report 241, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- S. Rao Aiyagari & R. Anton Braun & Zvi Eckstein, 1995. "Transaction services, inflation, and welfare," Working Papers 551, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Mackinnon, J.G. & Haug, A.A. & Michelis, L., 1996.
"Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration,"
96a09, Universite Aix-Marseille III.
- MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-77, Sept.-Oct.
- James G. MacKinnon & Alfred A. Haug & Leo Michelis, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Working Papers 1996_07, York University, Department of Economics.
- Eilev S. Jansen, 2004.
"Modelling inflation in the Euro Area,"
Working Paper Series
4104, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, revised 01 Jun 2004.
- Lawrence Christiano & Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno, 2007. "Two Reasons Why Money and Credit May be Useful in Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 13502, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ramsey, James B. & Lampart, Camille, 1998. "Decomposition Of Economic Relationships By Timescale Using Wavelets," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(01), pages 49-71, March.
- Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1989. "Interpreting the evidence on money-income causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 161-181, January.
- Martin Feldstein & James H. Stock, 1994.
"The Use of a Monetary Aggregate to Target Nominal GDP,"
in: Monetary Policy, pages 7-69
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Martin Feldstein & James H. Stock, 1993. "The Use of Monetary Aggregate to Target Nominal GDP," NBER Working Papers 4304, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Patrick M. Crowley, 2007. "A Guide To Wavelets For Economists ," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(2), pages 207-267, 04.
- Thoma, Mark A, 1994. "The Effects of Money Growth on Inflation and Interest Rates across Spectral Frequency Bands," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(2), pages 218-31, May.
- Agell, J. & Persson, M., 1989. "Does Debt Management Matter?," Papers 442, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Thoma, Mark A, 1992. "The Effects of Inside and Outside Money on Industrial Production across Spectral Frequency Bands," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(4), pages 737-41, November.
- Benjamin M. Friedman & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1991.
"Another Look at the Evidence on Money-Income Causality,"
NBER Working Papers
3856, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Friedman, Benjamin M. & Kuttner, Kenneth N., 1993. "Another look at the evidence on money-income causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1-3), pages 189-203.
- Bruggeman, Annick & Camba-Méndez, Gonzalo & Fischer, Björn & Sousa, João, 2005. "Structural filters for monetary analysis: the inflationary movements of money in the euro area," Working Paper Series 0470, European Central Bank.
- Joseph Abate & Michael Boldin, 1993. "The money-output link: are F-tests reliable?," Research Paper 9328, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eab:macroe:22369. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shiro Armstrong)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.