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Monetary Policy Transmission in Vector Autoregressions: A New Approach Using Central Bank Communication

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  • Matthias Neuenkirch

    () (University of Aachen)

Abstract

In this paper, we study the role played by central bank communication in monetary policy transmission. We employ the Swiss Economic Institute’s Monetary Policy Communicator to measure the future stance of the European Central Bank’s monetary policy. Our results indicate, first, that communication has an influence on inflation (expectations) similar to that of actual target rate changes. Communication also plays a noticeable role in the transmission of monetary policy to output. Consequently, future work on monetary policy transmission should incorporate both a short-term interest rate and a communication indicator. A second finding is that the monetary policy transmission mechanism changed during the financial crisis as the overall effect of monetary policy on (expected) inflation and output is weaker and of shorter duration during this period compared to the overall sample period.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthias Neuenkirch, 2011. "Monetary Policy Transmission in Vector Autoregressions: A New Approach Using Central Bank Communication," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201143, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  • Handle: RePEc:mar:magkse:201143
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    File URL: http://www.uni-marburg.de/fb02/makro/forschung/magkspapers/43-2011_neuenkirch.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hayo, Bernd & Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2015. "Central bank communication in the financial crisis: Evidence from a survey of financial market participants," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 166-181.
    2. Vithessonthi, Chaiporn & Schwaninger, Markus & Müller, Matthias O., 2017. "Monetary policy, bank lending and corporate investment," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 129-142.
    3. repec:bpj:bejmac:v:17:y:2017:i:1:p:41:n:7 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Bernd Hayo & Florian Neumeier & Matthias Uhl, 2014. "Topics in Fiscal Policy: Evidence from a Representative Survey of the German Population," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201412, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    5. Hamza Bennani & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2017. "The (home) bias of European central bankers: new evidence based on speeches," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(11), pages 1114-1131, March.
    6. Jan Pablo Burgard & Matthias Neuenkirch & Matthias Nöckel, 2016. "State-Dependent Transmission of Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," Research Papers in Economics 2016-15, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
    7. Jakub Mateju, 2013. "Explaining the Strength and the Efficiency of Monetary Policy Transmission: A Panel of Impulse Responses from a Time-Varying Parameter Model," Working Papers IES 2013/18, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Nov 2013.
    8. Neuenkirch, Matthias & Nöckel, Matthias, 2018. "The risk-taking channel of monetary policy transmission in the euro area," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 71-91.
    9. Georgiadis, Georgios & Jančoková, Martina, 2017. "Financial globalisation, monetary policy spillovers and macro-modelling: tales from 1001 shocks," Working Paper Series 2082, European Central Bank.
    10. repec:fan:efeefe:v:html10.3280/efe2016-002002 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. repec:eee:jbfina:v:86:y:2018:i:c:p:1-20 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. repec:fau:fauart:v:68:y:2018:i:1:p:2-17 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Bluhm, Marcel, 2015. "Investigating the monetary policy of central banks with assessment indicators," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 181-196.
    14. Hayo, Bernd & Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2015. "Self-monitoring or reliance on media reporting: How do financial market participants process central bank news?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 27-37.
    15. Michael Ehrmann & Jonathan Talmi, 2016. "Starting from a Blank Page? Semantic Similarity in Central Bank Communication and Market Volatility," Staff Working Papers 16-37, Bank of Canada.
    16. Donato Masciandaro & Davide Romelli, 2016. "From Silence to Voice: Monetary Policy, Central Bank Governance and Communication," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1627, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central Bank Communication; European Central Bank; Monetary Policy Shocks; Monetary Policy Transmission; Vector Autoregression;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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