VAR-ing Monetary Policy in Poland
The paper makes an attempt to estimate the effects of monetary policy shocks on the economy. We estimate four variables VAR system with industrial production, CPI, money market rate and exchange rate. Two policy indicators: money market interest rate and exchange rate are assumed to be contemporaneously influenced by monetary policy shocks. The identification of the shocks is obtained by assigning weights to these two variables in the short run monetary condition index. The response functions generated by the small VAR system have reasonable shapes and economic interpretations: monetary policy shock seems to affect inflation and output relatively quickly. Granger causality tests reveals that although money market rate has limited predictive power in forecasting industrial production and CPI, the predictive power of exchange rate is very significant for the CPI. Decomposition of variance of the forecasted variables is consistent with these results: monetary policy shocks have significant contribution to the forecast variance of CPI.
|Date of creation:||1999|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Aleja Jana Pawla II, 61, 01-031 Warsaw|
Phone: +48 22 206 29 00
Fax: +48 22 206 29 01
Web page: http://www.case-research.eu/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Fank Smets, 1997.
"Measuring Monetary Policy Shocks in France, Germany and Italy: The Role of The Exchange Rate,"
Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES),
Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 133(III), pages 597-616, September.
- Frank Smets, 1997. "Measuring monetary policy shocks in France, Germany and Italy: The role of the exchange rate," BIS Working Papers 42, Bank for International Settlements.
- Piero Ugolini, 1996. "National Bank of Poland; The Road to Indirect Instruments," IMF Occasional Papers 144, International Monetary Fund.
- Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1989. "Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 121-184 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Romer, Christina D. & Romer, David H., 1989. "Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt5h07k8vf, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1989. "Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz," NBER Working Papers 2966, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Christina D. Romer and David H. Romer., 1989. "Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz," Economics Working Papers 89-107, University of California at Berkeley.
- Sims, Christopher A., 1992. "Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts : The effects of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 975-1000, June.
- Christopher A. Sims, 1992. "Interpreting the Macroeconomic Time Series Facts: The Effects of Monetary Policy," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1011, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Bernanke, Ben S. & Mihov, Ilian, 1997. "What does the Bundesbank target?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1025-1053, June.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1996. "What Does the Bundesbank Target?," NBER Working Papers 5764, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-921, September.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Alan S. Blinder, 1989. "The federal funds rate and the channels of monetary transmission," Working Papers 89-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Ben Bernanke, 1990. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transnission," NBER Working Papers 3487, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Strongin, Steven, 1995. "The identification of monetary policy disturbances explaining the liquidity puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 463-497, June. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)