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Output Variability and the Money-Output Relationship

  • Hany Guirguis

    (Department of Economics and Finance, Manhattan College, U.S.A.)

  • Martin B. Schmidt

    (Department of Economics, College of William and Mary, U.S.A.)

The present paper incorporates a rolling regression approach to examine the sensitivity of output responses to monetary shocks. In doing so, the paper finds that the impact of monetary shocks is highly variable. Specifically, the output responses are estimated to be significant during the 1970s and 1990s but not during the 1980s. Several recent authors have suggested that the effectiveness of monetary policy is impacted by the stability of the economic environment, i.e., that the noise associated with estimating the true output level makes it difficult for the monetary authority to ¡§hit its target¡¨ or even to estimate the correct target. In this case, supposed optimal policy may produce any number of possible output responses and none of these consistently. The present results provide additional evidence, as the magnitude of output response appears to be negatively related with the degree of output variability.

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Article provided by College of Business, and College of Finance, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan in its journal International Journal of Business and Economics.

Volume (Year): 4 (2005)
Issue (Month): 1 (April)
Pages: 53-66

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Handle: RePEc:ijb:journl:v:4:y:2005:i:1:p:53-66
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  1. Peter C.B. Phillips & Steven N. Durlauf, 1985. "Multiple Time Series Regression with Integrated Processes," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 768, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  2. Miller, Stephen M, 1991. "Monetary Dynamics: An Application of Cointegration and Error-Correction Modeling," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(2), pages 139-54, May.
  3. Tanner, J. Ernest, 1979. "Are the lags in the effects of monetary policy variable?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 105-121, January.
  4. Kim, Soyoung, 1999. "Do monetary policy shocks matter in the G-7 countries? Using common identifying assumptions about monetary policy across countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 387-412, August.
  5. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
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  7. West, Kenneth D, 1988. "Asymptotic Normality, When Regressors Have a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1397-1417, November.
  8. Athanasios Orphanides, 1998. "Monetary policy evaluation with noisy information," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-50, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Is The Fed Too Timid? Monetary Policy In An Uncertain World," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 203-217, May.
  10. Peersman, Gert & Smets, Frank, 1999. "The Taylor Rule: A Useful Monetary Policy Benchmark for the Euro Area?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(1), pages 85-116, April.
  11. Sims, Christopher A., 1992. "Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts : The effects of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 975-1000, June.
  12. Lastrapes, William D & Selgin, George A, 1994. "Buffer-Stock Money: Interpreting Short-Run Dynamics Using Long-Run Restrictions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(1), pages 34-54, February.
  13. Stock, James H, 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Least Squares Estimators of Cointegrating Vectors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 1035-56, September.
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  15. Cover, James Peery, 1992. "Asymmetric Effects of Positive and Negative Money-Supply Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(4), pages 1261-82, November.
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