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Real Exchange Rate Response to Capital Flows in Mexico: An Empirical Analysis

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  • Mr. Marcelo P. Dabós
  • Mr. V. Hugo Juan-Ramon

Abstract

This study shows that in Mexico there is a long-run relationship between the real exchange rate and capital inflows, the external terms of trade, and productivity in the manufacturing sector. A once-and-for-all unit increase in the ratio of quarterly capital inflow to quarterly (annualized) GDP causes a long-run real appreciation of the peso of about 12 percent. The analysis also reveals a structural break in 1995, which coincides with the change to a floating exchange rate arrangement, and an overvaluation of the peso in real terms on the eve of the end–1994 crisis in the range of 12 to 25 percent.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Marcelo P. Dabós & Mr. V. Hugo Juan-Ramon, 2000. "Real Exchange Rate Response to Capital Flows in Mexico: An Empirical Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2000/108, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2000/108
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Carlos A. Ibarra, 2016. "Investment, asset market, and the relative unit labor cost in Mexico," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 339-364, November.
    2. Evan C. Tanner, 2018. "The Algebraic Galaxy of Simple Macroeconomic Models: A Hitchhiker’s Guide," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 177-209, February.
    3. Ibarra, Carlos A., 2011. "Capital Flows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Mexico," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 2080-2090.
    4. Jozef M. Van Brabant, 2001. "Exchange-rate policy in eastern Europe and EU integration," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 54(218), pages 219-248.
    5. Nikolas A. Müller-Plantenberg, 2017. "Boom-and-bust Cycles, External Imbalances and the Real Exchange Rate," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(1), pages 56-87, January.
    6. Omotosho, Babatunde S., 2012. "Endogenous Structural Breaks and Real Exchange Rate Determination in Nigeria since Interbank Foreign Exchange Market (IFEM)," MPRA Paper 98306, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Jozef M. Van Brabant, 2001. "Exchange-rate policy in eastern Europe and EU integration," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 54(218), pages 219-248.
    8. O. P. C. Muhammed Rafi & M. Ramachandran, 2018. "Capital flows and exchange rate volatility: experience of emerging economies," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 183-205, December.
    9. Pami Dua & Partha Sen, 2006. "Capital Flow Volatility And Exchange Rates-- The Case Of India," Working papers 144, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    10. Müller-Plantenberg, Nikolas, 2012. "Boom-and-bust cycles marked by capital inflows, current account deterioration and a rise and fall of the real exchange rate," Working Papers in Economic Theory 2012/10, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (Spain), Department of Economic Analysis (Economic Theory and Economic History).
    11. International Monetary Fund, 2004. "Mexico: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2004/250, International Monetary Fund.

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