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Capital Flows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Mexico

  • Ibarra, Carlos A.
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    Following the recently-developed bounds testing approach, the paper analyzes the long-run determinants of the Mexican peso’s real exchange rate from 1988Q1 to 2008Q2. Controlling for the standard determinants, the paper shows that all types of capital inflows tended to appreciate the peso. In contrast to recent multi-country studies, it finds no evidence of a less harmful effect from foreign direct investment (FDI)—on the contrary, the FDI’s appreciation effect can be particularly strong—and interprets this finding. The paper also shows that monetary policy, through changes in the short-term interest differential, can have persistent, level effects on the real exchange rate.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X11001501
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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal World Development.

    Volume (Year): 39 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 12 ()
    Pages: 2080-2090

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:39:y:2011:i:12:p:2080-2090
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/worlddev

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    5. Kose, M. Ayhan & Prasad, Eswar & Rogoff, Kenneth & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2010. "Financial Globalization and Economic Policies," Handbook of Development Economics, Elsevier.
    6. Cardarelli, Roberto & Elekdag, Selim & Kose, M. Ayhan, 2010. "Capital inflows: Macroeconomic implications and policy responses," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 333-356, December.
    7. Luis Miguel Galindo & Jaime Ros, 2008. "Alternatives to inflation targeting in Mexico," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(2), pages 201-214.
    8. Carlos Ibarra, 2011. "Monetary Policy and Real Currency Appreciation: A BEER Model for the Mexican Peso," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 91-110.
    9. Peter Henry, 2007. "Capital Account Liberalization: Theory, Evidence, and Speculation," Discussion Papers 07-004, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    10. Emmanuel K. K. Lartey, 2007. "Capital inflows and the real exchange rate: An empirical study of sub-Saharan Africa," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 337-357.
    11. Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo & Montiel, Peter J., 1995. "The surge in capital inflows to developing countries : prospects and policy response," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1473, The World Bank.
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    16. Bassem Kamar & Damyana Bakardzhieva & Samy Ben Naceur & Sami Ben Naceur, 2010. "The Impact of Capital and Foreign Exchange Flowson the Competitiveness of Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 10/154, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 1979-1990.
    18. Blecker, Robert A., 2009. "External Shocks, Structural Change, and Economic Growth in Mexico, 1979-2007," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 1274-1284, July.
    19. Corbo, Vittorio & Hernandez, Leonardo, 1996. "Macroeconomic Adjustment to Capital Inflows: Lessons from Recent Latin American and East Asian Experience," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 11(1), pages 61-85, February.
    20. Ronald MacDonald & Peter B. Clark, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals; A Methodological Comparison of Beers and Feers," IMF Working Papers 98/67, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Prema-Chandra Athukorala & Sarath Rajapatirana, 2003. "Capital Inflows and the Real Exchange Rate: A Comparative Study of Asia and Latin America," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 613-637, 04.
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