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Trade liberalization and the balance of payments constraint with intermediate imports: the case of Mexico revisited

  • Robert A. Blecker
  • Carlos A. Ibarra

Previous studies have found that a tightening of the balance of payments (BP) constraint can explain the slowdown in Mexico’s growth after its trade liberalization in the late 1980s. This paper develops a disaggregated model of the BP constraint with two types of exports (manufactured and primary commodities) and two types of imports (intermediate and final goods). Econometric estimates (including tests for structural breaks) show that the BPequilibrium growth rate did not fall, but instead rose in the post-liberalization period, so this model cannot account for the country’s growth slowdown. Instead, the analysis points to the need to consider the real exchange rate as well as internal obstacles and policies.

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Paper provided by American University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2013-02.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:amu:wpaper:2013-02
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  20. Guerrero de Lizardi, Carlos, 2003. "Modelo de crecimiento económico restringido por la balanza de pagos. Evidencia para México, 1940-2000," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(278), pages 253-273, abril-jun.
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