IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/emx/esteco/v21y2006i1p3-22.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Fundamentals of real exchange rate determination: What role in the peso crisis?

Author

Listed:
  • Arne Kildegaard

    (university of Minnesota, Morris)

Abstract

We examine the role of structural factors in the Mexican real exchange rate experience since 1970, particularly in the crisis of December, 1994. We find that “fundamental" determinants of the real exchange--omitted from previous research--are cointegrated with nominal exchange rates and relative prices, while tests of PPP alone fail. The cointegrating equation indicates a severe undervaluation during the 1980s and only modest overvaluation in the period immediately preceding the devaluation in December, 1994. Nothing in the fundamentals can account for magnitude of the blow Mexico suffered at that time.

Suggested Citation

  • Arne Kildegaard, 2006. "Fundamentals of real exchange rate determination: What role in the peso crisis?," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 21(1), pages 3-22.
  • Handle: RePEc:emx:esteco:v:21:y:2006:i:1:p:3-22
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://estudioseconomicos.colmex.mx/archivo/EstudiosEconomicos2006/3-22.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Antonio E. Noriega & Lorena Medina, 2003. "Quasi purchasing power parity: Structural change in the Mexican peso/us dollar real exchange rate," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 18(2), pages 227-236.
    2. Irving B. Kravis & Robert E. Lipsey, 1982. "Towards an Explanation of National Price Levels," NBER Working Papers 1034, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Testing weak exogeneity and the order of cointegration in UK money demand data," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 313-334, June.
    4. Atrayee Ghoshroy-Saha & Hendrik Vann De Berg, 1996. "Mexico's futile attempt to defy purchasing power parity," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(6), pages 395-399.
    5. Joachim Zietz, 2000. "Cointegration versus traditional econometric techniques in applied economics," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 26(4), pages 469-482, Fall.
    6. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    7. Dickey, David A & Pantula, Sastry G, 1987. "Determining the Ordering of Differencing in Autoregressive Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 455-461, October.
    8. Hegwood, Natalie D & Papell, David H, 1998. "Quasi Purchasing Power Parity," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(4), pages 279-289, October.
    9. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
    10. Froot, Kenneth A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Perspectives on PPP and long-run real exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics,in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 32, pages 1647-1688 Elsevier.
    11. Dibooglu, Selahattin, 1996. "Real disturbances, relative prices and purchasing power parity," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 69-87.
    12. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 1993. "Long-run purchasing power parity during the recent float," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 181-192, February.
    13. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    14. Hall, Alastair R, 1994. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series with Pretest Data-Based Model Selection," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 461-470, October.
    15. Sebastian Edwards & Miguel A. Savastano, 1999. "Exchange Rates in Emerging Economies: What Do We Know? What Do We Need to Know?," NBER Working Papers 7228, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Leybourne, S J, 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots Using Forward and Reverse Dickey-Fuller Regressions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(4), pages 559-571, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ibarra, Carlos A., 2011. "Capital Flows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Mexico," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 2080-2090.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:emx:esteco:v:21:y:2006:i:1:p:3-22. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Rocío Contreras). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/cecolmx.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.