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VECM estimations of the PPP reversion rate revisited: the conventional role of relative price adjustment restored

  • Kim, Hyeongwoo

Cheung et al. (2004) use a vector error correction model (VECM) for the current float nominal exchange rate and the relative price data and claim that the sluggish Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) reversion is primarily driven by the nominal exchange rate, not by relative price adjustment, which is at odds with the conventional sticky-price models. Our major findings are as follows. First, we suggest cases where VECMs are of limited usefulness even when all the variables in the system are not weakly exogenous. Second, using century-long exchange rates, we find that the relative price plays an important role for PPP reversion when real shocks occur. Third, protracted hump-shaped responses of real exchange rates are frequently observed when there is a relative price shock, leading to sluggish adjustments toward PPP. Nominal exchange rate shocks generate humped dynamics much less frequently.

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File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/33005/1/MPRA_paper_33005.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 33005.

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Date of creation: Aug 2011
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:33005
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  1. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July.
  2. Kenneth A. Froot & Kenneth Rogoff, 1994. "Perspectives on PPP and Long-Run Real Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 4952, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 1998. "Can sticky price models generate volatile and persistent real exchange rates?," Staff Report 223, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  4. repec:oup:restud:v:69:y:2002:i:3:p:533-63 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Yin-Wong Cheung & Kon S. Lai & Michael Bergman, 2003. "Dissecting the PPP Puzzle: The Unconventional Roles of Nominal Exchange Rate and Price Adjustment," CESifo Working Paper Series 924, CESifo Group Munich.
  6. Charles Engel, 2000. "Comments on Obstfeld and Rogoff's "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?"," NBER Working Papers 7818, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Alan M. Taylor, 2002. "A Century Of Purchasing-Power Parity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(1), pages 139-150, February.
  8. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff & Ben Bernanke & Kenneth Rogoff, . "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is there a Common Cause?," Working Paper 32326, Harvard University OpenScholar.
  9. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
  10. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1996. "Cointegration and speed of convergence to equilibrium," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 117-143.
  11. Hyeongwoo, Kim, 2009. "Generalized Impulse Response Analysis: General or Extreme?," MPRA Paper 17014, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1995. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Shocks to Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(4), pages 975-1009.
  13. Charles Engel & James C. Morley, 2001. "The Adjustment of Prices and the Adjustment of the Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 8550, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Jon Steinsson, 2005. "The Dynamic Behavior of the Real Exchange Rate in Sticky Price Models," Economics wp28_jonst, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
  15. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
  16. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
  17. Taylor, Alan M, 2001. "Potential Pitfalls for the Purchasing-Power-Parity Puzzle? Sampling and Specification Biases in Mean-Reversion Tests of the Law of One Price," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(2), pages 473-98, March.
  18. Lopez, Claude & Murray, Christian J & Papell, David H, 2005. "State of the Art Unit Root Tests and Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(2), pages 361-69, April.
  19. Hall, Alastair R, 1994. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series with Pretest Data-Based Model Selection," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 461-70, October.
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