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Continuous time regime switching model applied to foreign exchange rate

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  • Stéphane Goutte

    () (LPMA - Laboratoire de Probabilités et Modèles Aléatoires - UPMC - Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 - UPD7 - Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Benteng Zou

    () (Center for Research in Economic Analysis CREA - CREA - Center for Research in Economic Analysis - Uni.lu - Université du Luxembourg)

Abstract

Modified Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model is employed, combining with Hamilton (1989) type Markov regime switching framework, to study foreign exchange rates, where all parameter values depend on the value of a continuous time Markov chain. Basing on real data of some foreign exchange rates, the Expectation-Maximization algorithm is extended to this more general model and it is applied to calibrate all parameters. We compare the obtained results regarding to results obtained with non regime switching models and notice that our results match much better the reality than the others without Markov switching. Furthermore, we illustrate our model on various foreign exchange rate data and clarify some significant eco- nomic time periods in which financial or economic crisis appeared, thus, regime switching obtained.

Suggested Citation

  • Stéphane Goutte & Benteng Zou, 2012. "Continuous time regime switching model applied to foreign exchange rate," Working Papers hal-00643900, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00643900
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00643900v2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Julien Chevallier & Stéphane Goutte, 2015. "Detecting jumps and regime switches in international stock markets returns," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(13), pages 1011-1019, September.
    2. Goutte, Stéphane, 2014. "Conditional Markov regime switching model applied to economic modelling," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 258-269.
    3. Raphaël Homayoun Boroumand & Stéphane Goutte & Simon Porcher & Thomas Porcher, 2014. "A Conditional Markov Regime Switching Model to Study Margins: Application to the French Fuel Retail Markets," Working Papers hal-01090837, HAL.
    4. Stéphane Goutte & Amine Ismail & Huyên Pham, 2017. "Regime-switching Stochastic Volatility Model : Estimation and Calibration to VIX options," Working Papers hal-01212018, HAL.
    5. Olivier Damette & Stéphane Goutte, 2015. "Tobin tax and trading volume tightening: a reassessment," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(29), pages 3124-3141, June.

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    Keywords

    Foreign exchange rate; Regime switching model; calibration; financial crisis;

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