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Efficient estimation of Markov regime-switching models: An application to electricity spot prices

Listed author(s):
  • Joanna Janczura
  • Rafal Weron

In this paper we discuss the calibration of models built on mean-reverting processes combined with Markov regime-switching (MRS). We propose a method that greatly reduces the computational burden induced by the introduction of independent regimes and perform a simulation study to test its efficiency. Our method allows for a 100 to over 1000 times faster calibration than in case of a competing approach utilizing probabilities of the last 10 observations. It is also more general and admits any value of gamma in the base regime dynamics. Since the motivation for this research comes from a recent stream of literature in energy economics, we apply the new method to sample series of electricity spot prices from the German EEX and Australian NSW markets. The proposed MRS models fit these datasets well and replicate the major stylized facts of electricity spot price dynamics.

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File URL: http://www.im.pwr.wroc.pl/~hugo/RePEc/wuu/wpaper/HSC_11_02.pdf
File Function: Original version, 2011
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Paper provided by Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology in its series HSC Research Reports with number HSC/11/02.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: 2011
Handle: RePEc:wuu:wpaper:hsc1102
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  1. Rafał Weron, 2009. "Heavy-tails and regime-switching in electricity prices," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 69(3), pages 457-473, July.
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  12. Borak, Szymon & Weron, Rafal, 2008. "A semiparametric factor model for electricity forward curve dynamics," MPRA Paper 10421, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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  14. Karakatsani Nektaria V & Bunn Derek W., 2010. "Fundamental and Behavioural Drivers of Electricity Price Volatility," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(4), pages 1-42, September.
  15. Janczura, Joanna & Weron, Rafal, 2011. "Goodness-of-fit testing for the marginal distribution of regime-switching models," MPRA Paper 32532, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  16. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
  17. Rafal Weron & Adam Misiorek, 2005. "Modeling and forecasting electricity loads: A comparison," Econometrics 0502004, EconWPA.
  18. Fred Espen Benth & Alvaro Cartea & Ruediger Kiesel, 2006. "Pricing Forward Contracts in Power Markets by the Certainty Equivalence Principle: Explaining the Sign of the Market Risk Premium," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0611, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  19. De Jong Cyriel, 2006. "The Nature of Power Spikes: A Regime-Switch Approach," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(3), pages 1-28, September.
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  22. Trueck, Stefan & Weron, Rafal & Wolff, Rodney, 2007. "Outlier Treatment and Robust Approaches for Modeling Electricity Spot Prices," MPRA Paper 4711, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  23. Timothy Christensen & Stan Hurn & Kenneth Lindsay, 2009. "It Never Rains but it Pours: Modeling the Persistence of Spikes in Electricity Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 25-48.
  24. Erlwein, Christina & Benth, Fred Espen & Mamon, Rogemar, 2010. "HMM filtering and parameter estimation of an electricity spot price model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1034-1043, September.
  25. de Jong, C.M. & Huisman, R., 2002. "Option Formulas for Mean-Reverting Power Prices with Spikes," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2002-96-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
  26. Mount, Timothy D. & Ning, Yumei & Cai, Xiaobin, 2006. "Predicting price spikes in electricity markets using a regime-switching model with time-varying parameters," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 62-80, January.
  27. Karakatsani, Nektaria V. & Bunn, Derek W., 2008. "Intra-day and regime-switching dynamics in electricity price formation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1776-1797, July.
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  29. H. Wong & Wai-Cheung Ip & Zhongjie Xie & Xueli Lui, 2003. "Modelling and forecasting by wavelets, and the application to exchange rates," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(5), pages 537-553.
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