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A semiparametric factor model for electricity forward curve dynamics

  • Borak, Szymon
  • Weron, Rafal

In this paper we introduce the dynamic semiparametric factor model (DSFM) for electricity forward curves. The biggest advantage of our approach is that it not only leads to smooth, seasonal forward curves extracted from exchange traded futures and forward electricity contracts, but also to a parsimonious factor representation of the curve. Using closing prices from the Nordic power market Nord Pool we provide empirical evidence that the DSFM is an efficient tool for approximating forward curve dynamics.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/10421/1/MPRA_paper_10421.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 10421.

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Date of creation: 10 Jul 2008
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:10421
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  1. Szymon Borak & Wolfgang Härdle & Enno Mammen & Byeong U. Park, 2007. "Time Series Modelling with Semiparametric Factor Dynamics," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2007-023, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  2. Fengler, Matthias R. & Härdle, Wolfgang & Mammen, Enno, 2003. "Implied volatility string dynamics," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2003,54, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  3. Patrick Hagan & Graeme West, 2006. "Interpolation Methods for Curve Construction," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 89-129.
  4. Nikolaus Hautsch & Vahidin Jeleskovic, 2008. "Modelling High-Frequency Volatility and Liquidity Using Multiplicative Error Models," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-047, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  5. Fleten, Stein-Erik & Lemming, Jacob, 2003. "Constructing forward price curves in electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 409-424, September.
  6. Rafal Weron, 2006. "Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices: A Statistical Approach," HSC Books, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology, number hsbook0601.
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