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A semiparametric factor model for electricity forward curve dynamics

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  • Borak, Szymon
  • Weron, Rafal

Abstract

In this paper we introduce the dynamic semiparametric factor model (DSFM) for electricity forward curves. The biggest advantage of our approach is that it not only leads to smooth, seasonal forward curves extracted from exchange traded futures and forward electricity contracts, but also to a parsimonious factor representation of the curve. Using closing prices from the Nordic power market Nord Pool we provide empirical evidence that the DSFM is an efficient tool for approximating forward curve dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Borak, Szymon & Weron, Rafal, 2008. "A semiparametric factor model for electricity forward curve dynamics," MPRA Paper 10421, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:10421
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2008-047 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Matthias R. Fengler & Wolfgang K. Härdle & Enno Mammen, 0. "A semiparametric factor model for implied volatility surface dynamics," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 5(2), pages 189-218.
    3. Hautsch, Nikolaus & Jeleskovic, Vahidin, 2008. "Modelling high-frequency volatility and liquidity using multiplicative error models," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2008-047, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    4. Fleten, Stein-Erik & Lemming, Jacob, 2003. "Constructing forward price curves in electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 409-424, September.
    5. repec:eme:mfppss:03074350510769703 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Fengler, Matthias R. & Härdle, Wolfgang & Mammen, Enno, 2003. "Implied volatility string dynamics," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2003,54, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    7. Patrick Hagan & Graeme West, 2006. "Interpolation Methods for Curve Construction," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 89-129.
    8. Rafal Weron, 2006. "Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices: A Statistical Approach," HSC Books, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, number hsbook0601, December.
    9. Park, Byeong U. & Mammen, Enno & Härdle, Wolfgang & Borak, Szymon, 2009. "Time Series Modelling With Semiparametric Factor Dynamics," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 104(485), pages 284-298.
    10. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2007-023 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Joanna Janczura & Rafal Weron, 2012. "Inference for Markov-regime switching models of electricity spot prices," HSC Research Reports HSC/12/01, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    2. Nowotarski, Jakub & Tomczyk, Jakub & Weron, Rafał, 2013. "Robust estimation and forecasting of the long-term seasonal component of electricity spot prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 13-27.
    3. Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Majer, Piotr, 2012. "Yield curve modeling and forecasting using semiparametric factor dynamics," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2012-048, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    4. Benth, Fred Espen & Paraschiv, Florentina, 2016. "A Structural Model for Electricity Forward Prices," Working Papers on Finance 1611, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    5. Joanna Janczura & Rafał Weron, 2012. "Efficient estimation of Markov regime-switching models: An application to electricity spot prices," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 96(3), pages 385-407, July.
    6. Benth, Fred Espen & Paraschiv, Florentina, 2018. "A space-time random field model for electricity forward prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 203-216.
    7. Weron, Rafał, 2014. "Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1030-1081.
    8. Lu, Xun & Su, Liangjun, 2015. "Jackknife model averaging for quantile regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 188(1), pages 40-58.
    9. Weron, Rafal & Janczura, Joanna, 2010. "Efficient estimation of Markov regime-switching models: An application to electricity wholesale market prices," MPRA Paper 26628, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Cartea, Álvaro & González-Pedraz, Carlos, 2012. "How much should we pay for interconnecting electricity markets? A real options approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 14-30.
    11. Stefan Trück & Wolfgang Härdle & Rafal Weron, 2012. "The relationship between spot and futures CO2 emission allowance prices in the EU-ETS," HSC Research Reports HSC/12/02, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    12. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2012-048 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Yan Li & Liangjun Su & Yuewu Xu, 2015. "A Combined Approach to the Inference of Conditional Factor Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 203-220, April.
    14. Janczura, Joanna & Weron, Rafal, 2010. "An empirical comparison of alternate regime-switching models for electricity spot prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1059-1073, September.
    15. Caldana, Ruggero & Fusai, Gianluca & Roncoroni, Andrea, 2017. "Electricity forward curves with thin granularity: Theory and empirical evidence in the hourly EPEXspot market," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 261(2), pages 715-734.
    16. Liebl, Dominik, 2013. "Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Spot Prices: A Functional Data Perspective," MPRA Paper 50881, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Trück, Stefan, 2010. "The dynamics of hourly electricity prices," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2010-013, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    18. Peter Leoni & Pieter Segaert & Sven Serneels & Tim Verdonck, 2018. "Multivariate constrained robust M‐regression for shaping forward curves in electricity markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(11), pages 1391-1406, November.

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    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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