Heavy-tails and regime-switching in electricity prices
In this paper we first analyze the stylized facts of electricity prices, in particular, the extreme volatility and price spikes which lead to heavy-tailed distributions of price changes. Then we calibrate Markov regime-switching (MRS) models with heavy-tailed components and show that they adequately address the aforementioned characteristics. Contrary to the common belief that electricity price models ‘should be built on log-prices’, we find evidence that modeling the prices themselves is more beneficial and methodologically sound, at least in case of MRS models.
|Date of creation:||09 May 2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Huisman, Ronald & Mahieu, Ronald, 2003.
"Regime jumps in electricity prices,"
Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 425-434, September.
- Huisman, R. & Mahieu, R.J., 2001. "Regime Jumps in Electricity Prices," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2001-48-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
- Park, Haesun & Mjelde, James W. & Bessler, David A., 2006. "Price dynamics among U.S. electricity spot markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 81-101, January.
- Weron, Rafal, 2008. "Market price of risk implied by Asian-style electricity options and futures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 1098-1115, May.
- Bierbrauer, Michael & Menn, Christian & Rachev, Svetlozar T. & Truck, Stefan, 2007. "Spot and derivative pricing in the EEX power market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(11), pages 3462-3485, November.
- De Jong Cyriel, 2006. "The Nature of Power Spikes: A Regime-Switch Approach," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(3), pages 1-28, September.
- Michael Bierbrauer & Stefan Trueck & Rafal Weron, 2005. "Modeling electricity prices with regime switching models," Econometrics 0502005, EconWPA.
- Simonsen, Ingve, 2005. "Volatility of power markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 355(1), pages 10-20.
- Weron, Rafał, 2004. "Computationally intensive Value at Risk calculations," Papers 2004,32, Humboldt-Universität Berlin, Center for Applied Statistics and Economics (CASE).
- Byström, Hans, 2001.
"Extreme Value Theory and Extremely Large Electricity Price Changes,"
2001:19, Lund University, Department of Economics.
- Bystrom, Hans N. E., 2005. "Extreme value theory and extremely large electricity price changes," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 41-55.
- Burnecki, Krzysztof & Klafter, Joseph & Magdziarz, Marcin & Weron, Aleksander, 2008. "From solar flare time series to fractional dynamics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(5), pages 1077-1087.
- Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
- Rafal Weron, 2006. "Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices: A Statistical Approach," HSC Books, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology, number hsbook0601.
- Pavel Cizek & Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Rafal Weron, 2005. "Statistical Tools for Finance and Insurance," HSC Books, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology, number hsbook0501.
- Fong Chan, Kam & Gray, Philip, 2006. "Using extreme value theory to measure value-at-risk for daily electricity spot prices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 283-300.
- Giulio Bottazzi & Sandro Sapio & Angelo Secchi, 2004.
"Some Statistical Investigations on the Nature and Dynamics of Electricity Prices,"
LEM Papers Series
2004/13, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
- Bottazzi, G. & Sapio, S. & Secchi, A., 2005. "Some statistical investigations on the nature and dynamics of electricity prices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 355(1), pages 54-61.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:10424. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.