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Goodness-of-fit testing for regime-switching models

  • Janczura, Joanna
  • Weron, Rafal

In this paper we propose a novel goodness-of-fit testing scheme for regime-switching models. We consider models with an observable, as well as, a latent state process. The test is based on the Kolmogorov-Smirnov supremum-distance statistic and the concept of the weighted empirical distribution function. We apply the proposed scheme to test whether a 2-state Markov regime-switching model fits electricity spot price data.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/22871/1/MPRA_paper_22871.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 22871.

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Date of creation: 24 May 2010
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:22871
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  1. Joanna Janczura & Rafał Weron, 2012. "Efficient estimation of Markov regime-switching models: An application to electricity spot prices," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer, vol. 96(3), pages 385-407, July.
  2. Trueck, Stefan & Weron, Rafal & Wolff, Rodney, 2007. "Outlier Treatment and Robust Approaches for Modeling Electricity Spot Prices," MPRA Paper 4711, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Karakatsani Nektaria V & Bunn Derek W., 2010. "Fundamental and Behavioural Drivers of Electricity Price Volatility," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(4), pages 1-42, September.
  4. Kim, Chang-Jin, 1994. "Dynamic linear models with Markov-switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 1-22.
  5. De Jong Cyriel, 2006. "The Nature of Power Spikes: A Regime-Switch Approach," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(3), pages 1-28, September.
  6. Pavel Cizek & Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Rafal Weron, 2005. "Statistical Tools for Finance and Insurance," HSC Books, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology, number hsbook0501.
  7. Misiorek Adam & Trueck Stefan & Weron Rafal, 2006. "Point and Interval Forecasting of Spot Electricity Prices: Linear vs. Non-Linear Time Series Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(3), pages 1-36, September.
  8. René Garcia, 1995. "Asymptotic Null Distribution of the Likelihood Ratio Test in Markov Switching Models," CIRANO Working Papers 95s-07, CIRANO.
  9. Rafał Weron, 2009. "Heavy-tails and regime-switching in electricity prices," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 69(3), pages 457-473, July.
  10. Gilles Celeux & Jean-Baptiste Durand, 2008. "Selecting hidden Markov model state number with cross-validated likelihood," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 541-564, October.
  11. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
  12. Hamilton, James D., 1996. "Specification testing in Markov-switching time-series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 127-157, January.
  13. Hu Liang & Shin Yongcheol, 2008. "Optimal Test for Markov Switching GARCH Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(3), pages 1-27, September.
  14. Jan Bulla & Andreas Berzel, 2008. "Computational issues in parameter estimation for stationary hidden Markov models," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 1-18, January.
  15. Janczura, Joanna & Weron, Rafal, 2010. "An empirical comparison of alternate regime-switching models for electricity spot prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1059-1073, September.
  16. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
  17. Withers, Christopher S. & Nadarajah, Saralees, 2010. "The distribution and quantiles of functionals of weighted empirical distributions when observations have different distributions," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(13-14), pages 1093-1102, July.
  18. Bierbrauer, Michael & Menn, Christian & Rachev, Svetlozar T. & Truck, Stefan, 2007. "Spot and derivative pricing in the EEX power market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(11), pages 3462-3485, November.
  19. Choi Seungmoon, 2009. "Regime-Switching Univariate Diffusion Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 1-41, March.
  20. Karakatsani, Nektaria V. & Bunn, Derek W., 2008. "Forecasting electricity prices: The impact of fundamentals and time-varying coefficients," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 764-785.
  21. Sen, Rituparna & Hsieh, Fushing, 2009. "A note on testing regime switching assumption based on recurrence times," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(24), pages 2443-2450, December.
  22. Jin Seo Cho & Halbert White, 2007. "Testing for Regime Switching," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(6), pages 1671-1720, November.
  23. Weron, Rafal & Janczura, Joanna, 2010. "Efficient estimation of Markov regime-switching models: An application to electricity wholesale market prices," MPRA Paper 26628, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  24. Thomas Lux & Leonardo Morales-Arias, 2009. "Forecasting Volatility under Fractality, Regime-Switching, Long Memory and Student-t Innovations," Kiel Working Papers 1532, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  25. Marine Carrasco & Liang Hu, 2004. "Optimal test for Markov switching," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 396, Econometric Society.
  26. John Davis, 2005. "Introduction," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 361-361.
  27. Rafal Weron, 2006. "Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices: A Statistical Approach," HSC Books, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology, number hsbook0601.
  28. Rafal Weron & Adam Misiorek, 2005. "Modeling and forecasting electricity loads: A comparison," Econometrics 0502004, EconWPA.
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