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Forecasting electricity prices: The impact of fundamentals and time-varying coefficients

Listed author(s):
  • Karakatsani, Nektaria V.
  • Bunn, Derek W.
Registered author(s):

    This paper investigates the day-ahead forecasting performance of fundamental price models for electricity spot prices, intended to capture: (i) the impacts of economic, technical, strategic and risk factors on intra-day prices; and (ii) the dynamics of these effects over time. A time-varying parameter (TVP) regression model allows for a continuously adaptive price structure, due to agent learning, regulatory and market structure changes. A regime-switching regression model allows for discontinuities in pricing due to temporal irregularities and scarcity effects. The models that invoke market fundamentals and time-varying coefficients exhibit the best predictive performance among various alternatives, in the British market.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169-2070(08)00107-6
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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.

    Volume (Year): 24 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 4 ()
    Pages: 764-785

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:24:y:2008:i:4:p:764-785
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast

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