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Understanding the Fine Structure of Electricity Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Helyette Geman

    (DRM - Dauphine Recherches en Management - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • A. Roncoroni

    (DRM - Dauphine Recherches en Management - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the special features of electricity spot prices derived from the physics of this commodity and from the economics of supply and demand in a market pool. Besides mean-reversion, a property they share with other commodities, power prices exhibit the unique feature of spikes in trajectories. We introduce a class of discontinuous processes exhibiting a jump-reversion component to properly represent these sharp upward moves shortly followed by drops of similar magnitude. Our approach allows to capture - for the first time to our knowledge - both the trajectorial and the statistical properties of electricity pool prices. The quality of the fitting is illustrated on a database of major US power markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Helyette Geman & A. Roncoroni, 2006. "Understanding the Fine Structure of Electricity Prices," Post-Print halshs-00144198, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00144198
    as

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