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Bidding structure, market efficiency and persistence in a multi-time tariff setting

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  • Avci-Surucu, Ezgi
  • Aydogan, A. Kursat
  • Akgul, Doganbey

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to examine the fractal dynamics of day ahead electricity prices by using parametric and semi parametric approaches for each time zone in a multi-time tariff setting in the framework of bidding strategies, market efficiency and persistence of exogenous shocks. We find that that electricity prices have long term correlation structure for the first and third time zones indicating that market participants bid hyperbolically and not at their marginal costs, market is not weak form efficient at these hours and exogenous shocks to change the mean level of prices will have permanent effect and be effective. On the other hand, for the second time zone we find that price series does not exhibit long term memory. This finding suggests the weak form efficiency of the market in these hours and that market participants bid at their marginal costs. Furthermore this indicates that exogenous shocks will have temporary effect on electricity prices in these hours. These findings constitute an important foundation for policy makers and market participants to develop appropriate electricity price forecasting tools, market monitoring indexes and to conduct ex-ante impact assessment.

Suggested Citation

  • Avci-Surucu, Ezgi & Aydogan, A. Kursat & Akgul, Doganbey, 2016. "Bidding structure, market efficiency and persistence in a multi-time tariff setting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 77-87.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:54:y:2016:i:c:p:77-87
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2015.10.017
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Restructured electricity prices; Fractal noise; Long memory; Persistence; Energy Policies; Market Efficiency; Bidding Structure;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • D47 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Market Design
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy

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