IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Long memory in US disaggregated petroleum consumption: Evidence from univariate and multivariate LM tests for fractional integration

  • Lean, Hooi Hooi
  • Smyth, Russell

Previous studies that have tested for a unit root in aggregate energy consumption have potentially reached misleading conclusions because they fail to allow for the possibility that energy consumption might be fractionally integrated and do not distinguish between different types of energy consumption. This study tests for long memory in disaggregated petroleum consumption in the United States using univariate and multivariate Lagrange multiplier (LM) tests for fractional integration. The results point strongly to the need to distinguish between different forms of energy consumption and allow for a generalization of the I(0)/I(1) dichotomy when considering the order of integration of energy consumption. Allowing for short-run dynamics, the univariate test suggests that less than 50% of the series are fractionally integrated. Consistent with expectations the non-stationary series are found to have the highest mean and standard deviation. The multivariate test suggests that petroleum consumption in the commercial and industrial sectors is clearly fractionally integrated when allowing for short-run dynamics, and, as such, exhibits persistent effects, while petroleum consumption in the residential sector is a stationary process.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V2W-4W80CD7-3/2/71d2da0472c19a55296f7f7b5d14f44b
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.

Volume (Year): 37 (2009)
Issue (Month): 8 (August)
Pages: 3205-3211

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:37:y:2009:i:8:p:3205-3211
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Morten �rregaard Nielsen, 2005. "Multivariate Lagrange Multiplier Tests for Fractional Integration," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 3(3), pages 372-398.
  2. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 2003. "Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(2), pages 579-625, March.
  3. Francis X. Diebold & Steven Husted & Mark Rush, 1990. "Real exchange rates under the gold standard," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 32, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  4. Serletis, Apostolos & Gogas, Periklis, 1999. "The North American natural gas liquids markets are chaotic," MPRA Paper 1576, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. A. Assaf, 2007. "Fractional integration in the equity markets of MENA region," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(9), pages 709-723.
  6. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1991. "Is Consumption Too Smooth? Long Memory and the Deaton Paradox," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(1), pages 1-9, February.
  7. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1989. "Long memory and persistence in aggregate output," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 189-209, September.
  8. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Guglielmo M. Caporale, 2008. "Modelling the US, the UK and Japanese unemployment rates. Fractional integrationand structural breaks," Faculty Working Papers 11/08, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  9. Elder, John & Serletis, Apostolos, 2008. "Long memory in energy futures prices," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 146-155.
  10. Gilberto Libanio, 2005. "Unit roots in macroeconomic time series: theory, implications, and evidence," Nova Economia, Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil), vol. 15(3), pages 145-176, September.
  11. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Smyth, Russell, 2005. "Electricity consumption, employment and real income in Australia evidence from multivariate Granger causality tests," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 1109-1116, June.
  12. Manmohan S. Kumar & Tatsuyoshi Okimoto, 2007. "Dynamics of Persistence in International Inflation Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(6), pages 1457-1479, 09.
  13. Breitung, Jorg & Hassler, Uwe, 2002. "Inference on the cointegration rank in fractionally integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 167-185, October.
  14. Haldrup, Niels & Nielsen, Morten Oe., . "Estimation of Fractional Integration in the Presence of Data Noise," Economics Working Papers 2003-10, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  15. Mishra, Vinod & Sharma, Susan & Smyth, Russell, 2009. "Are fluctuations in energy consumption per capita transitory? Evidence from a panel of Pacific Island countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2318-2326, June.
  16. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Lee, Jun-De, 2009. "Energy prices, multiple structural breaks, and efficient market hypothesis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(4), pages 466-479, April.
  17. Gil-Alana, L. A., 2003. "A fractional multivariate long memory model for the US and the Canadian real output," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(3), pages 355-359, December.
  18. Altinay, Galip & Karagol, Erdal, 2004. "Structural break, unit root, and the causality between energy consumption and GDP in Turkey," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 985-994, November.
  19. Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  20. Maslyuk, Svetlana & Smyth, Russell, 2009. "Non-linear unit root properties of crude oil production," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 109-118, January.
  21. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema & Smyth, Russell, 2008. "Are oil shocks permanent or temporary? Panel data evidence from crude oil and NGL production in 60 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 919-936, May.
  22. Yang, Hao-Yen, 2000. "A note on the causal relationship between energy and GDP in Taiwan," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 309-317, June.
  23. Kumar Narayan, Paresh & Smyth, Russell, 2007. "Are shocks to energy consumption permanent or temporary? Evidence from 182 countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 333-341, January.
  24. Chen, Pei-Fen & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2007. "Is energy consumption per capita broken stationary? New evidence from regional-based panels," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 3526-3540, June.
  25. Lee, D. & Schmidt, P., 1993. "On the Power of the KPSS Test of Stationarity Against Fractionally-Integrated Alternatives," Papers 9111, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
  26. Hassler, Uwe & Wolters, Jurgen, 1995. "Long Memory in Inflation Rates: International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 37-45, January.
  27. Svetlana Maslyuk & Russell Smyth, 2007. "Unit Root Properties of Crude Oil Spot and Futures Prices," Monash Economics Working Papers 40-07, Monash University, Department of Economics.
  28. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2008. "Energy consumption and economic growth in Asian economies: A more comprehensive analysis using panel data," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 50-65, January.
  29. Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2002. "Structural breaks and fractional integration in the US output and unemployment rate," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 79-84, September.
  30. Ewing, Bradley T. & Sari, Ramazan & Soytas, Ugur, 2007. "Disaggregate energy consumption and industrial output in the United States," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 1274-1281, February.
  31. Francis X. Diebold & Atsushi Inoue, 2000. "Long Memory and Regime Switching," NBER Technical Working Papers 0264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  32. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2005. "Structural breaks, energy consumption, and economic growth revisited: Evidence from Taiwan," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 857-872, November.
  33. van Dijk, Dick & Franses, Philip Hans & Paap, Richard, 2002. "A nonlinear long memory model, with an application to US unemployment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 135-165, October.
  34. Serletis, Apostolos, 1992. "Unit root behavior in energy futures prices," MPRA Paper 1744, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  35. Kilian, Lutz, 2005. "Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much do they Matter for the US Economy?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5131, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  36. B. Mandelbrot, 1972. "Statistical Methodology for Nonperiodic Cycles: From the Covariance To R/S Analysis," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 1, number 3, pages 259-290 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  37. Sari, Ramazan & Ewing, Bradley T. & Soytas, Ugur, 2008. "The relationship between disaggregate energy consumption and industrial production in the United States: An ARDL approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2302-2313, September.
  38. Baillie, Richard T & Chung, Ching-Fan & Tieslau, Margie A, 1996. "Analysing Inflation by the Fractionally Integrated ARFIMA-GARCH Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 23-40, Jan.-Feb..
  39. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2008. "Modelling the US, UK and Japanese unemployment rates: Fractional integration and structural breaks," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(11), pages 4998-5013, July.
  40. Tanaka, Katsuto, 1999. "The Nonstationary Fractional Unit Root," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(04), pages 549-582, August.
  41. Baillie, Richard T., 1996. "Long memory processes and fractional integration in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 5-59, July.
  42. Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2005. "Energy consumption and GDP in developing countries: A cointegrated panel analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 415-427, May.
  43. Al-Iriani, Mahmoud A., 2006. "Energy-GDP relationship revisited: An example from GCC countries using panel causality," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(17), pages 3342-3350, November.
  44. Joyeux, Roselyne & Ripple, Ronald D., 2007. "Household energy consumption versus income and relative standard of living: A panel approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 50-60, January.
  45. Sari, Ramazan & Soytas, Ugur, 2004. "Disaggregate energy consumption, employment and income in Turkey," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 335-344, May.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:37:y:2009:i:8:p:3205-3211. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.