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The North American Natural Gas Liquids Markets are Chaotic

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  • Apostolos Serletis
  • Periklis Gogas

Abstract

In this paper we test for deterministic chaos (i.e., nonlinear deterministic processes which look random) in seven Mont Belview, Texas, hydrocarbon markets, using monthly data from 1985:1 to 1996:12--the markets are those of ethane, propane, normal butane, iso-butane, naptha, crude oil, and natural gas. In doing so, we use the Lyapunov exponent estimator of Nychka, Ellner, Gallant, and McCaffrey (1992). We conclude that there is evidence, consistent with a chaotic nonlinear generation process in all five natural gas liquids markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Apostolos Serletis & Periklis Gogas, 1999. "The North American Natural Gas Liquids Markets are Chaotic," The Energy Journal, , vol. 20(1), pages 83-103, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:20:y:1999:i:1:p:83-103
    DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol20-No1-5
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    1. Apostolos Serletis, 2007. "Is There an East-West Split in North American Natural Gas Markets?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Quantitative And Empirical Analysis Of Energy Markets, chapter 6, pages 59-72, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
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    Cited by:

    1. Lean, Hooi Hooi & Smyth, Russell, 2009. "Long memory in US disaggregated petroleum consumption: Evidence from univariate and multivariate LM tests for fractional integration," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 3205-3211, August.
    2. Mastroeni, Loretta & Vellucci, Pierluigi & Naldi, Maurizio, 2019. "A reappraisal of the chaotic paradigm for energy commodity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 167-178.
    3. Apostolos Serletis & Ioannis Andreadis, 2007. "Random Fractal Structures in North American Energy Markets," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Quantitative And Empirical Analysis Of Energy Markets, chapter 18, pages 245-255, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Elder, John & Serletis, Apostolos, 2008. "Long memory in energy futures prices," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 146-155.
    5. Wu, Y. & Zhang, D.Z., 2007. "Demand fluctuation and chaotic behaviour by interaction between customers and suppliers," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(1), pages 250-259, May.
    6. Aghababa, Hajar & Barnett, William A., 2016. "Dynamic structure of the spot price of crude oil: does time aggregation matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 227-237.
    7. Xu, Weijun & Sun, Qi & Xiao, Weilin, 2012. "A new energy model to capture the behavior of energy price processes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1585-1591.
    8. Loretta Mastroeni & Pierluigi Vellucci, 2017. "“Chaos” In Energy And Commodity Markets: A Controversial Matter," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0218, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
    9. Tao Yin & Yiming Wang, 2019. "Predicting the Price of WTI Crude Oil Using ANN and Chaos," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(21), pages 1-14, October.
    10. Loretta Mastroeni & Pierluigi Vellucci, 2016. "“Butterfly Effect" vs Chaos in Energy Futures Markets," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0209, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
    11. Kyrtsou, Catherine & Malliaris, Anastasios G. & Serletis, Apostolos, 2009. "Energy sector pricing: On the role of neglected nonlinearity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 492-502, May.
    12. Saeed Moshiri & Faezeh Foroutan, 2006. "Forecasting Nonlinear Crude Oil Futures Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 81-96.
    13. Loretta Mastroeni & Pierluigi Vellucci, 2016. ""Butterfly Effect" vs Chaos in Energy Futures Markets," Papers 1610.05697, arXiv.org.
    14. Loretta Mastroeni & Pierluigi Vellucci, 2016. ""Chaos" in energy and commodity markets: a controversial matter," Papers 1611.07432, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2017.
    15. Monge, Manuel & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Pérez de Gracia, Fernando, 2017. "Crude oil price behaviour before and after military conflicts and geopolitical events," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 79-91.
    16. John Francis Diaz & Jo-Hui Chen, 2017. "Testing for Long-memory and Chaos in the Returns of Currency Exchange-traded Notes (ETNs)," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 7(4), pages 1-2.
    17. Barkoulas, John T. & Chakraborty, Atreya & Ouandlous, Arav, 2012. "A metric and topological analysis of determinism in the crude oil spot market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 584-591.
    18. repec:bla:opecrv:v:34:y:2010:i:2:p:82-106 is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Natural gas liquids prices; statistical analysis; financial markets; GARCH; chaos; Lyapunov exponent;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C49 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Other
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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