A new energy model to capture the behavior of energy price processes
Owing to the vague fluctuation of energy prices from time to time, a new energy model, which considers both the mean-reverting behavior and the long memory property, is proposed in this paper. Since the problem of estimating parameters, in discrete time for this model, plays a central role in forecast inference, the problem of estimating the unknown parameters has been dealt with for the fractional Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process observed discretely. The asymptotic properties of these estimates are also provided. The numerical simulation results confirm the theoretical analysis and show that our method is effective. To show how to apply our approach in realistic contexts, an empirical study of energy in China, namely Daqing crude oil, is presented. The empirical results seem reasonable when compared to the real data.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Coeurjolly, Jean-Francois, 2000. "Simulation and identification of the fractional Brownian motion: a bibliographical and comparative study," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 5(i07).
- Schlueter, Stephan, 2010. "A long-term/short-term model for daily electricity prices with dynamic volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1074-1081, September.
- Tabak, Benjamin M. & Cajueiro, Daniel O., 2007. "Are the crude oil markets becoming weakly efficient over time? A test for time-varying long-range dependence in prices and volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 28-36, January.
- Xu, Weidong & Wu, Chongfeng & Li, Hongyi, 2011. "Foreign equity option pricing under stochastic volatility model with double jumps," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1857-1863, July.
- Alexandre Brouste & Marina Kleptsyna, 2010. "Asymptotic properties of MLE for partially observed fractional diffusion system," Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, April.
- Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng & Wei, Yu, 2011. "Can GARCH-class models capture long memory in WTI crude oil markets?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 921-927, May.
- William Barnett & Apostolos Serletis & Demitre Serletis, 2005.
"Nonlinear and Complex Dynamics in Real Systems,"
GE, Growth, Math methods
- William Barnett & Apostolos Serletis & Demitre Serletis, 2005. "Nonlinear and Complex Dynamics in Real Systems," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 200517, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2005.
- Henghsiu Tsai & K. S. Chan, 2005. "Maximum likelihood estimation of linear continuous time long memory processes with discrete time data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 67(5), pages 703-716.
- Peter F. Craigmile, 2003. "Simulating a class of stationary Gaussian processes using the Davies-Harte algorithm, with application to long memory processes," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 505-511, 09.
- Casas, Isabel & Gao, Jiti, 2008.
"Econometric estimation in long-range dependent volatility models: Theory and practice,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 72-83, November.
- Casas, Isabel & Gao, Jiti, 2006. "Econometric estimation in long-range dependent volatility models: Theory and practice," MPRA Paper 11981, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Aug 2007.
- Niels Haldrup & Frank S. Nielsen & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen, 2009.
"A vector autoregressive model for electricity prices subject to long memory and regime switching,"
1211, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Haldrup, Niels & Nielsen, Frank S. & Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard, 2010. "A vector autoregressive model for electricity prices subject to long memory and regime switching," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1044-1058, September.
- Niels Haldrup & Frank S. Nielsen & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen, 2007. "A Vector Autoregressive Model for Electricity Prices Subject to Long Memory and Regime Switching," CREATES Research Papers 2007-29, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Henghsiu Tsai & K. S. Chan, 2005. "Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimation for a Class of Continuous-time Long-memory Processes," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(5), pages 691-713, 09.
- Elyasiani, Elyas & Mansur, Iqbal & Odusami, Babatunde, 2011. "Oil price shocks and industry stock returns," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 966-974, September.
- Serletis, Apostolos & Gogas, Periklis, 1999.
"The North American natural gas liquids markets are chaotic,"
1576, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Apostolos Serletis & Periklis Gogas, 2007. "The North American Natural Gas Liquids Markets are Chaotic," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Quantitative And Empirical Analysis Of Energy Markets, chapter 17, pages 225-244 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
- Apostolos Serletis & Periklis Gogas, 1999. "The North American Natural Gas Liquids Markets are Chaotic," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 83-103.
- Serletis, A. & Gogas, P., 1998. "The North American Natural Gas Liquids Markets are Chaotic," Papers 98-10, Calgary - Department of Economics.
- Nualart, D. & Ortiz-Latorre, S., 2008. "Central limit theorems for multiple stochastic integrals and Malliavin calculus," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 118(4), pages 614-628, April.
- Kang, Sang Hoon & Kang, Sang-Mok & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2009. "Forecasting volatility of crude oil markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 119-125, January.
- Yacine Ait-Sahalia, 2002. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Discretely Sampled Diffusions: A Closed-form Approximation Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 223-262, January.
- Weidong Xu & Hongyi Li & Chongfeng Wu, 2011. "A Robust General Equilibrium Stochastic Volatility Model with Recursive Preference Investors," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 12(2), pages 217-231, November.
- Stein, Elias M & Stein, Jeremy C, 1991. "Stock Price Distributions with Stochastic Volatility: An Analytic Approach," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(4), pages 727-52.
- Hu, Yaozhong & Nualart, David, 2010. "Parameter estimation for fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(11-12), pages 1030-1038, June.
- Niels Haldrup & Morten O. Nielsen, 2004.
"A Regime Switching Long Memory Model for Electricity Prices,"
Economics Working Papers
2004-2, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Haldrup, Niels & Nielsen, Morten Orregaard, 2006. "A regime switching long memory model for electricity prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 349-376.
- Meade, Nigel, 2010. "Oil prices -- Brownian motion or mean reversion? A study using a one year ahead density forecast criterion," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1485-1498, November.
- Eduardo Schwartz & James E. Smith, 2000. "Short-Term Variations and Long-Term Dynamics in Commodity Prices," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(7), pages 893-911, July.
- Elder, John & Serletis, Apostolos, 2008. "Long memory in energy futures prices," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 146-155.
- Xu, Weidong & Wu, Chongfeng & Li, Hongyi, 2010. "Robust general equilibrium under stochastic volatility model," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 224-231, December.
- Xi, Xiaojing & Mamon, Rogemar, 2011. "Parameter estimation of an asset price model driven by a weak hidden Markov chain," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 36-46, January.
- Vasicek, Oldrich Alfonso, 1977. "Abstract: An Equilibrium Characterization of the Term Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(04), pages 627-627, November.
- Luis A. Gil-Alana & James Payne & David Loomis, 2010.
"Does energy consumption by the US electric power secto exhibit long memory behaviour?,"
Faculty Working Papers
04/10, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
- Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Loomis, David & Payne, James E., 2010. "Does energy consumption by the US electric power sector exhibit long memory behavior?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 7512-7518, November.
- M. T. Barlow, 2002. "A Diffusion Model For Electricity Prices," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(4), pages 287-298.
- M.L. Kleptsyna & A. Le Breton, 2002. "Statistical Analysis of the Fractional Ornstein–Uhlenbeck Type Process," Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 229-248, October.
- Xi, Xiaojing & Mamon, Rogemar, 2011. "Parameter estimation of an asset price model driven by a weak hidden Markov chain," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 36-46.
- Tang, Cheng Yong & Chen, Song Xi, 2009. "Parameter estimation and bias correction for diffusion processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 149(1), pages 65-81, April.
- Le Breton, Alain, 1998. "Filtering and parameter estimation in a simple linear system driven by a fractional Brownian motion," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 263-274, June.
- Brennan, Michael J & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1985. "Evaluating Natural Resource Investments," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(2), pages 135-57, April.
- Chow, Gregory C., 1984. "Maximum-likelihood estimation of misspecified models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 134-138, April.
- Lean, Hooi Hooi & Smyth, Russell, 2009. "Long memory in US disaggregated petroleum consumption: Evidence from univariate and multivariate LM tests for fractional integration," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 3205-3211, August.
- Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
- Pestana Barros, Carlos & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Payne, James E., 2012. "Evidence of long memory behavior in U.S. renewable energy consumption," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 822-826.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:29:y:2012:i:5:p:1585-1591. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.