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Long Memory in German Energy Price Indices

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  • Carlos P. Barros
  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale
  • Luis A. Gil-Alana

Abstract

This study examines the long-memory properties of German energy price indices (specifically, import and export prices, as well as producer and consumer prices) for hard coal, lignite, mineral oil and natural gas adopting a fractional integration modelling framework. The analysis is undertaken using monthly data from January 2000 to August 2011. The results suggest nonstationary long memory in the series (with orders of integration equal to or higher than 1) when breaks are not allowed for. However, endogenous break tests indicate a single break in all series except for producer prices for lignite for which two breaks are detected. When such breaks are taken into account, and with autocorrelated disturbances, evidence of mean reversion is found in practically all cases.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos P. Barros & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2012. "Long Memory in German Energy Price Indices," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1186, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1186
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta, 2012. "Testing for Persistence with Breaks and Outliers in South African House Prices," Working Papers 201233, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Energy prices; Germany; fractional integration; persistence; breaks and outliers;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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