Long Memory in German Energy Price Indices
This study examines the long-memory properties of German energy price indices (specifically, import and export prices, as well as producer and consumer prices) for hard coal, lignite, mineral oil and natural gas adopting a fractional integration modelling framework. The analysis is undertaken using monthly data from January 2000 to August 2011. The results suggest nonstationary long memory in the series (with orders of integration equal to or higher than 1) when breaks are not allowed for. However, endogenous break tests indicate a single break in all series except for producer prices for lignite for which two breaks are detected. When such breaks are taken into account, and with autocorrelated disturbances, evidence of mean reversion is found in practically all cases.
|Date of creation:||2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Mohrenstraße 58, D-10117 Berlin|
Web page: http://www.diw.de/en
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jing, Li & Thompson, Henry, 2010.
"A Note on the Oil Price Trend and GARCH Shocks,"
20654, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Francis X. Diebold & Atsushi Inoue, 2000.
"Long Memory and Regime Switching,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2006.
"Fractional integration and structural breaks at unknown periods of time,"
Faculty Working Papers
16/06, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
- Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2008. "Fractional integration and structural breaks at unknown periods of time," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 163-185, 01.
- Mohn, Klaus & Osmundsen, Petter, 2008. "Exploration economics in a regulated petroleum province: The case of the Norwegian Continental Shelf," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 303-320, March.
- Thomas Mikosch & Catalin Starica, 2004. "Non-stationarities in financial time series, the long range dependence and the IGARCH effects," Econometrics 0412005, EconWPA.
- Bhaskara Rao, B. & Rao, Gyaneshwar, 2009.
"Structural breaks and energy efficiency in Fiji,"
Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3959-3966, October.
- Peter M. Robinson & M. Henry, 1999.
"Long and short memory conditional heteroskedasticity in estimating the memory parameter of levels,"
LSE Research Online Documents on Economics
304, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Robinson, P.M. & Henry, M., 1999. "Long And Short Memory Conditional Heteroskedasticity In Estimating The Memory Parameter Of Levels," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(03), pages 299-336, June.
- Peter M. Robinson & Marc Henry, 1998. "Long and short memory conditional heteroscedasticity in estimating the memory parameter of levels," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 2022, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Kumar Narayan, Paresh & Smyth, Russell, 2007.
"Are shocks to energy consumption permanent or temporary? Evidence from 182 countries,"
Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 333-341, January.
- Paresh Kumar Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2005. "Are Shocks To Energy Consumption Permanent Or Temporary? Evidence From 182 Countries," Monash Economics Working Papers 06/05, Monash University, Department of Economics.
- Barros, Carlos Pestana & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Payne, James E., 2011.
"An analysis of oil production by OPEC countries: Persistence, breaks, and outliers,"
Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 442-453, January.
- Carlos Pestana Barros & Luis A. Gil-Alana & James E. Payne, 2011. "An Analysis of Oil Production by OPEC Countries: Persistence, Breaks, and Outliers," Faculty Working Papers 01/11, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
- Mishra, Vinod & Sharma, Susan & Smyth, Russell, 2009. "Are fluctuations in energy consumption per capita transitory? Evidence from a panel of Pacific Island countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2318-2326, June.
- Boone, Jeff P., 2001. "Empirical evidence for the superiority of non-US oil and gas investments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 211-226, March.
- Tsoskounoglou, Miltos & Ayerides, George & Tritopoulou, Efi, 2008. "The end of cheap oil: Current status and prospects," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 3797-3806, October.
- Serletis, Apostolos, 1992. "Maturity effects in energy futures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 150-157, April.
- Lean, Hooi Hooi & Smyth, Russell, 2009. "Long memory in US disaggregated petroleum consumption: Evidence from univariate and multivariate LM tests for fractional integration," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 3205-3211, August.
- Kang, Sang Hoon & Kang, Sang-Mok & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2009. "Forecasting volatility of crude oil markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 119-125, January.
- Chen, Pei-Fen & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2007. "Is energy consumption per capita broken stationary? New evidence from regional-based panels," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 3526-3540, June.
- Abadir, Karim M. & Distaso, Walter & Giraitis, Liudas, 2007. "Nonstationarity-extended local Whittle estimation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 1353-1384, December.
- Sowell, Fallaw, 1992. "Maximum likelihood estimation of stationary univariate fractionally integrated time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 165-188.
- Karbassi, A.R. & Abduli, M.A. & Mahin Abdollahzadeh, E., 2007. "Sustainability of energy production and use in Iran," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 5171-5180, October.
- Lutz Kilian, 2010. "Explaining Fluctuations in Gasoline Prices: A Joint Model of the Global Crude Oil Market and the U.S. Retail Gasoline Market," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 87-112.
- Thomas Mikosch & Cătălin Stărică, 2004. "Nonstationarities in Financial Time Series, the Long-Range Dependence, and the IGARCH Effects," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 378-390, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1186. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bibliothek)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.