IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mos/moswps/2012-15.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Will policies to promote renewable electricity generation be effective? Evidence from panel stationarity and unit root tests for 115 countries

Author

Listed:
  • Hooi Hooi Lean
  • Russell Smyth

Abstract

This study examines whether policies to promote renewable electricity generation are likely to be effective by applying panel unit root and stationarity tests to time series data on renewable electricity generation for 115 countries over the period 1980-2008. We find that for the panel as a whole, and almost three quarters of the individual countries, renewable electricity generation is characterized by a unit root. This result implies that policies to promote renewable electricity generation, such as renewable portfolio standards, which result in annual increases in renewable energy and, as such, which represent permanent positive shocks to the long-run growth path of renewable electricity generation, will be more effective in increasing renewable electricity generation than policies with a pre-specified time horizon.

Suggested Citation

  • Hooi Hooi Lean & Russell Smyth, 2012. "Will policies to promote renewable electricity generation be effective? Evidence from panel stationarity and unit root tests for 115 countries," Monash Economics Working Papers 15-12, Monash University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:mos:moswps:2012-15
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/eco/research/papers/2012/1512willpoliciestopromoteleansmyth.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Smyth, Russell, 2013. "Are fluctuations in energy variables permanent or transitory? A survey of the literature on the integration properties of energy consumption and production," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 371-378.
    2. Kumar Narayan, Paresh & Smyth, Russell, 2007. "Are shocks to energy consumption permanent or temporary? Evidence from 182 countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 333-341, January.
    3. Kumar Narayan, Paresh & Narayan, Seema & Popp, Stephan, 2010. "Energy consumption at the state level: The unit root null hypothesis from Australia," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(6), pages 1953-1962, June.
    4. Maslyuk, Svetlana & Smyth, Russell, 2009. "Non-linear unit root properties of crude oil production," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 109-118, January.
    5. Apergis, Nicholas & Loomis, David & Payne, James E., 2010. "Are fluctuations in coal consumption transitory or permanent? Evidence from a panel of US states," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(7), pages 2424-2426, July.
    6. Lean, Hooi Hooi & Smyth, Russell, 2013. "Are fluctuations in US production of renewable energy permanent or transitory?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 483-488.
    7. Glasnovic, Zvonimir & Margeta, Jure, 2011. "Vision of total renewable electricity scenario," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 1873-1884, May.
    8. Kaddour Hadri, 2000. "Testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 148-161.
    9. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Loomis, David & Payne, James E., 2010. "Does energy consumption by the US electric power sector exhibit long memory behavior?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 7512-7518, November.
    10. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema & Smyth, Russell, 2008. "Are oil shocks permanent or temporary? Panel data evidence from crude oil and NGL production in 60 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 919-936, May.
    11. Christophe Hurlin, 2010. "What would Nelson and Plosser find had they used panel unit root tests?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(12), pages 1515-1531.
    12. Congregado, Emilio & Golpe, Antonio A. & Carmona, Mónica, 2012. "Looking for hysteresis in coal consumption in the US," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 3339-3343.
    13. Oseni, Musiliu O., 2012. "Improving households’ access to electricity and energy consumption pattern in Nigeria: Renewable energy alternative," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 3967-3974.
    14. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    15. Sadorsky, Perry, 2009. "Renewable energy consumption, CO2 emissions and oil prices in the G7 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 456-462, May.
    16. Chen, Pei-Fen & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2007. "Is energy consumption per capita broken stationary? New evidence from regional-based panels," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 3526-3540, June.
    17. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    18. Barros, Carlos Pestana & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Payne, James E., 2011. "An analysis of oil production by OPEC countries: Persistence, breaks, and outliers," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 442-453, January.
    19. Klessmann, Corinna & Held, Anne & Rathmann, Max & Ragwitz, Mario, 2011. "Status and perspectives of renewable energy policy and deployment in the European Union—What is needed to reach the 2020 targets?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7637-7657.
    20. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    21. Karlsson, Sune & Lothgren, Mickael, 2000. "On the power and interpretation of panel unit root tests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(3), pages 249-255, March.
    22. Mathiesen, Brian Vad & Lund, Henrik & Karlsson, Kenneth, 2011. "100% Renewable energy systems, climate mitigation and economic growth," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 488-501, February.
    23. Agnolucci, Paolo, 2008. "Factors influencing the likelihood of regulatory changes in renewable electricity policies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 141-161, January.
    24. Apergis, Nicholas & Loomis, David & Payne, James E., 2010. "Are shocks to natural gas consumption temporary or permanent? Evidence from a panel of U.S. states," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4734-4736, August.
    25. Pestana Barros, Carlos & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Payne, James E., 2012. "Evidence of long memory behavior in U.S. renewable energy consumption," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 822-826.
    26. Hakan Kum, 2012. "Are Fluctuations in Energy Consumption Transitory or Permanent? Evidence From a Panel of East Asia & Pacific Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 2(3), pages 92-96.
    27. Sawangphol, Narumitr & Pharino, Chanathip, 2011. "Status and outlook for Thailand's low carbon electricity development," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 564-573, January.
    28. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:631-52 is not listed on IDEAS
    29. Laird, Frank N. & Stefes, Christoph, 2009. "The diverging paths of German and United States policies for renewable energy: Sources of difference," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2619-2629, July.
    30. Hashim, Haslenda & Ho, Wai Shin, 2011. "Renewable energy policies and initiatives for a sustainable energy future in Malaysia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(9), pages 4780-4787.
    31. Apergis, Nicholas & Tsoumas, Chris, 2012. "Long memory and disaggregated energy consumption: Evidence from fossils, coal and electricity retail in the U.S," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1082-1087.
    32. Hasanov, Mübariz & Telatar, Erdinc, 2011. "A re-examination of stationarity of energy consumption: Evidence from new unit root tests," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7726-7738.
    33. Ming, Zeng & Song, Xue & Mingjuan, Ma & Xiaoli, Zhu, 2013. "New energy bases and sustainable development in China: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 169-185.
    34. Ong, H.C. & Mahlia, T.M.I. & Masjuki, H.H., 2011. "A review on energy scenario and sustainable energy in Malaysia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 639-647, January.
    35. Yang, Hao-Yen, 2000. "A note on the causal relationship between energy and GDP in Taiwan," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 309-317, June.
    36. Lean, Hooi Hooi & Smyth, Russell, 2009. "Long memory in US disaggregated petroleum consumption: Evidence from univariate and multivariate LM tests for fractional integration," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 3205-3211, August.
    37. Haas, Reinhard & Panzer, Christian & Resch, Gustav & Ragwitz, Mario & Reece, Gemma & Held, Anne, 2011. "A historical review of promotion strategies for electricity from renewable energy sources in EU countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 1003-1034, February.
    38. Hsu, Yi-Chung & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Lee, Chi-Chuan, 2008. "Revisited: Are shocks to energy consumption permanent or temporary? New evidence from a panel SURADF approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2314-2330, September.
    39. Aslan, Alper, 2011. "Does natural gas consumption follow a nonlinear path over time? Evidence from 50 US States," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(9), pages 4466-4469.
    40. Salim, Ruhul A. & Rafiq, Shuddhasattwa, 2012. "Why do some emerging economies proactively accelerate the adoption of renewable energy?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1051-1057.
    41. Brown, Marilyn A. & Gumerman, Etan & Sun, Xiaojing & Sercy, Kenneth & Kim, Gyungwon, 2012. "Myths and facts about electricity in the U.S. South," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 231-241.
    42. Lior, Noam, 2012. "Sustainable energy development: The present (2011) situation and possible paths to the future," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 174-191.
    43. Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre & Tomás del Barrio-Castro & Enrique López-Bazo, 2005. "Breaking the panels: An application to the GDP per capita," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 8(2), pages 159-175, July.
    44. Shafie, S.M. & Mahlia, T.M.I. & Masjuki, H.H. & Andriyana, A., 2011. "Current energy usage and sustainable energy in Malaysia: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(9), pages 4370-4377.
    45. O'Connell, Paul G. J., 1998. "The overvaluation of purchasing power parity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 1-19, February.
    46. Farooq, Muhammad Khalid & Kumar, S., 2013. "An assessment of renewable energy potential for electricity generation in Pakistan," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 240-254.
    47. Apergis, Nicholas & Tsoumas, Chris, 2011. "Integration properties of disaggregated solar, geothermal and biomass energy consumption in the U.S," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5474-5479, September.
    48. Paolo Agnolucci & Andrew Venn, 2011. "Industrial energy intensities in the UK: is there a deterministic or stochastic difference among sectors?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(12), pages 1447-1462.
    49. Ciarreta, Aitor & Gutiérrez-Hita, Carlos & Nasirov, Shahriyar, 2011. "Renewable energy sources in the Spanish electricity market: Instruments and effects," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 2510-2519, June.
    50. Wiser, Ryan H. & Pickle, Steven J., 1998. "Financing investments in renewable energy : the impacts of policy design," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 361-386, December.
    51. Apergis, Nicholas & Payne, James E., 2010. "Structural breaks and petroleum consumption in US states: Are shocks transitory or permanent?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 6375-6378, October.
    52. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    53. Aslan, Alper & Kum, Hakan, 2011. "The stationary of energy consumption for Turkish disaggregate data by employing linear and nonlinear unit root tests," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 4256-4258.
    54. Mishra, Vinod & Sharma, Susan & Smyth, Russell, 2009. "Are fluctuations in energy consumption per capita transitory? Evidence from a panel of Pacific Island countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2318-2326, June.
    55. de Vries, Bert J.M. & van Vuuren, Detlef P. & Hoogwijk, Monique M., 2007. "Renewable energy sources: Their global potential for the first-half of the 21st century at a global level: An integrated approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 2590-2610, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Smyth, Russell, 2013. "Are fluctuations in energy variables permanent or transitory? A survey of the literature on the integration properties of energy consumption and production," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 371-378.
    2. Lean, Hooi Hooi & Smyth, Russell, 2014. "Will initiatives to promote hydroelectricity consumption be effective? Evidence from univariate and panel LM unit root tests with structural breaks," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 102-115.
    3. Smyth, Russell & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2015. "Applied econometrics and implications for energy economics research," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 351-358.
    4. Lean, Hooi Hooi & Smyth, Russell, 2014. "Are shocks to disaggregated energy consumption in Malaysia permanent or temporary? Evidence from LM unit root tests with structural breaks," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 319-328.
    5. Ozcan, Burcu & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2016. "A new approach to energy consumption per capita stationarity: Evidence from OECD countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 332-344.
    6. Lean, Hooi Hooi & Smyth, Russell, 2013. "Are fluctuations in US production of renewable energy permanent or transitory?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 483-488.
    7. Barros, Carlos Pestana & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Payne, James E., 2013. "U.S. Disaggregated renewable energy consumption: Persistence and long memory behavior," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 425-432.
    8. Meng, Ming & Payne, James E. & Lee, Junsoo, 2013. "Convergence in per capita energy use among OECD countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 536-545.
    9. Paresh Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2014. "Applied Econometrics and a Decade of Energy Economics Research," Monash Economics Working Papers 21-14, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    10. Schneider, Nicolas & Strielkowski, Wadim, 2023. "Modelling the unit root properties of electricity data—A general note on time-domain applications," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 618(C).
    11. Yilanci, Veli & Tunali, Çiğdem Börke, 2014. "Are fluctuations in energy consumption transitory or permanent? Evidence from a Fourier LM unit root test," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 20-25.
    12. Akram, Vaseem & Sahoo, Pradipta Kumar & Jangam, Bhushan Praveen, 2019. "Do shocks to electricity consumption revert to its equilibrium? Evidence from Indian states," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    13. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Ranjbar, Omid & Lee, Chi-Chuan, 2021. "Testing the persistence of shocks on renewable energy consumption: Evidence from a quantile unit-root test with smooth breaks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(PB).
    14. Golpe, Antonio A. & Carmona, Monica & Congregado, Emilio, 2012. "Persistence in natural gas consumption in the US: An unobserved component model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 594-600.
    15. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Khraief, Naceur & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Zaman, Khair Uz, 2014. "Are fluctuations in natural gas consumption per capita transitory? Evidence from time series and panel unit root tests," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 183-195.
    16. Barros, Carlos P. & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Wanke, Peter, 2016. "Energy production in Brazil: Empirical facts based on persistence, seasonality and breaks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 88-95.
    17. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-589 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Suleyman Bolat & Murat Belke & Necati Celik, 2013. "Mean Reverting Behavior of Energy Consumption: Evidence from Selected MENA Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 3(4), pages 315-320.
    19. Wang, Yuan & Li, Li & Kubota, Jumpei & Zhu, Xiaodong & Lu, Genfa, 2016. "Are fluctuations in Japan’s consumption of non-fossil energy permanent or transitory?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 187-196.
    20. Erdogan, Sinan & Akalin, Guray & Oypan, Oguz, 2020. "Are shocks to disaggregated energy consumption transitory or permanent in Turkey? New evidence from fourier panel KPSS test," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    21. Firouz Fallahi & Mohammad Karimi & Marcel-Cristian Voia, 2014. "Are Shocks to Energy Consumption Persistent? Evidence from Subsampling Confidence Intervals," Carleton Economic Papers 14-02, Carleton University, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mos:moswps:2012-15. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Simon Angus (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dxmonau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.