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A Note on the Oil Price Trend and GARCH Shocks

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  • Jing, Li
  • Thompson, Henry

Abstract

This paper investigates the trend in the monthly real price of oil between 1990 and 2008 with a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model. Trend and volatility are estimated jointly with the maximum likelihood estimation. There is long persistence in the variance of oil price shocks, and a GARCH unit root (GUR) test can potentially yield a significant power gain relative to the augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test. After allowing for nonlinearity, the evidence supports a deterministic trend in the price of oil. The deterministic trend implies that influence of a price shock is transitory and policy efforts to restore a predictable price after a shock would be unwarranted in the long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Jing, Li & Thompson, Henry, 2010. "A Note on the Oil Price Trend and GARCH Shocks," MPRA Paper 20654, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:20654
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Carlos Pestana Barros & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2012. "Long Memory in German Energy Price Indices," CESifo Working Paper Series 3935, CESifo.
    2. Kakeu, Johnson & Nguimkeu, Pierre, 2017. "Habit formation and exhaustible resource risk-pricing," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 1-12.
    3. Monge, Manuel & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Pérez de Gracia, Fernando, 2017. "Crude oil price behaviour before and after military conflicts and geopolitical events," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 79-91.
    4. Quintino, António & Catalão-Lopes, Margarida & Lourenço, João Carlos, 2019. "Can switching from gasoline to aromatics mitigate the price risk of refineries?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    5. Carlos Pestana Barros & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2011. "Oil Prices: Persistence and Breaks," Faculty Working Papers 09/11, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    6. Pieschacón, Anamaría, 2012. "The value of fiscal discipline for oil-exporting countries," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 250-268.
    7. Neil A. Wilmot & Charles F. Mason, 2013. "Jump Processes in the Market for Crude Oil," The Energy Journal, , vol. 34(1), pages 33-48, January.
    8. Presno, María José & Landajo, Manuel & Fernández, Paula, 2012. "Non-renewable resource prices. A robust evaluation from the stationarity perspective," MPRA Paper 42523, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Jakobsson, Kristofer & Söderbergh, Bengt & Snowden, Simon & Li, Chuan-Zhong & Aleklett, Kjell, 2012. "Oil exploration and perceptions of scarcity: The fallacy of early success," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1226-1233.
    10. Arturo Lorenzo-Valdés, 2021. "Conditional Probability of Jumps in Oil Prices," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 16(4), pages 1-14, Octubre -.
    11. Deng, Xiang & Xu, Fang, 2024. "Asymmetric effects of international oil prices on China's PPI in different industries——Research based on NARDL model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).
    12. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Zhang, Han, 2023. "Volatility forecasting of crude oil futures market: Which structural change-based HAR models have better performance?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    13. Presno, María José & Landajo, Manuel & Fernández, Paula, 2014. "Non-renewable resource prices: A robust evaluation from the stationarity perspective," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 394-416.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil Price; Volatility; Trend; GARCH; Fourier Form;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General

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