IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v290y2024ics0360544223035077.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Asymmetric effects of international oil prices on China's PPI in different industries——Research based on NARDL model

Author

Listed:
  • Deng, Xiang
  • Xu, Fang

Abstract

In theory, changes in the price of oil, which is a critical raw material for production, can affect the Producer Price Index (PPI). In this study, the PCA method is first employed to extract factors from the PPI of 39 industrial sectors in China, followed by the application of the NARDL model to analyze the nonlinear effects of international oil price fluctuations on the PPI of three industries. The results indicate that the long and short-term fluctuations in international oil prices have a significant impact on the PPI of resource-intensive industries and labor-intensive industries, but the impact on capital and technology-intensive industries is not significant. However, it is worth noting that the long-term increases in oil prices will have a negative impact on the PPI of resource-intensive industries. From the perspective of asymmetry, the positive and negative shocks of international oil prices will have an asymmetric impact on the PPI of labor-intensive industries, while the impact on resource-intensive industries is symmetric. Based on the existing conclusions, this article proposes relevant policy recommendations from the perspectives of both government and enterprises.

Suggested Citation

  • Deng, Xiang & Xu, Fang, 2024. "Asymmetric effects of international oil prices on China's PPI in different industries——Research based on NARDL model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:290:y:2024:i:c:s0360544223035077
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2023.130113
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544223035077
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2023.130113?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Olivier J. Blanchard & Marianna Riggi, 2013. "WHY ARE THE 2000s SO DIFFERENT FROM THE 1970s? A STRUCTURAL INTERPRETATION OF CHANGES IN THE MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS OF OIL PRICES," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11(5), pages 1032-1052, October.
    2. James D. Hamilton, 2009. "Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007-08," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 40(1 (Spring), pages 215-283.
    3. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Mukherjee, Zinnia & Gupta, Rangan & Balcilar, Mehmet, 2019. "A wavelet analysis of the relationship between oil and natural gas prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 118-124.
    4. Sun, Yunpeng & Gao, Pengpeng & Raza, Syed Ali & Shah, Nida & Sharif, Arshian, 2023. "The asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on the world food prices: Fresh evidence from quantile-on-quantile regression approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 270(C).
    5. Belke, Ansgar & Dobnik, Frauke & Dreger, Christian, 2011. "Energy consumption and economic growth: New insights into the cointegration relationship," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 782-789, September.
    6. Abbas Valadkhani & William F. Mitchell, 2002. "Assessing the Impact of Changes in Petroleum Prices on Inflation and Household Expenditures in Australia," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 35(2), pages 122-132, June.
    7. Choi, Sangyup & Furceri, Davide & Loungani, Prakash & Mishra, Saurabh & Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos, 2018. "Oil prices and inflation dynamics: Evidence from advanced and developing economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 71-96.
    8. Cologni, Alessandro & Manera, Matteo, 2008. "Oil prices, inflation and interest rates in a structural cointegrated VAR model for the G-7 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 856-888, May.
    9. Long, Shaobo & Pei, Hongxia & Tian, Hao & Lang, Kun, 2021. "Can both Bitcoin and gold serve as safe-haven assets? — A comparative analysis based on the NARDL model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    10. Knut Anton Mork & Oystein Olsen & Hans Terje Mysen, 1994. "Macroeconomic Responses to Oil Price Increases and Decreases in Seven OECD Countries," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 19-36.
    11. Chowdhury, Mohammad Ashraful Ferdous & Meo, Muhammad Saeed & Uddin, Ajim & Haque, Md. Mahmudul, 2021. "Asymmetric effect of energy price on commodity price: New evidence from NARDL and time frequency wavelet approaches," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    12. Donald W. Jones, Paul N. Leiby and Inja K. Paik, 2004. "Oil Price Shocks and the Macroeconomy: What Has Been Learned Since 1996," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 1-32.
    13. Fattouh, Bassam, 2010. "The dynamics of crude oil price differentials," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 334-342, March.
    14. Rögnvaldur Hannesson, 2012. "Does speculation drive the price of oil?," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 36(2), pages 125-137, June.
    15. François Lescaroux & Valérie Mignon, 2008. "On the Influence of Oil Prices on Economic Activity and Other Macroeconomic and Financial Variables," Working Papers 2008-05, CEPII research center.
    16. David E. Allen & Michael McAleer, 2021. "A Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) Analysis of the FTSE and S&P500 Indexes," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-20, November.
    17. Caspi, Itamar & Katzke, Nico & Gupta, Rangan, 2018. "Date stamping historical periods of oil price explosivity: 1876–2014," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 582-587.
    18. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    19. Jing Li & Henry Thompson, 2010. "A Note on the Oil Price Trend and GARCH Shocks," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 159-166.
    20. Liu, Feng & Xu, Jie & Ai, Chunrong, 2023. "Heterogeneous impacts of oil prices on China's stock market: Based on a new decomposition method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 268(C).
    21. Emmanuel Oladapo GEORGE & Jimoh Sina OGEDE, 2020. "Asymmetric Oil Price and Inflation: Evidence from Net Oil Exporting Countries in Africa," Business & Management Compass, University of Economics Varna, issue 2, pages 168-179.
    22. Jungho Baek, 2021. "Crude oil prices and macroeconomic activities: a structural VAR approach to Indonesia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(22), pages 2527-2538, May.
    23. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.
    24. Hamilton, James D., 2003. "What is an oil shock?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 363-398, April.
    25. Olivier J. Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2007. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Shocks: Why Are the 2000s so Different from the 1970s?," NBER Chapters, in: International Dimensions of Monetary Policy, pages 373-421, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Zhang, Zhiyuan & Sun, Qinglin & Ma, Yongfan, 2022. "The hedge and safe haven properties of non-fungible tokens (NFTs): Evidence from the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    27. Kesicki, Fabian, 2010. "The third oil price surge - What's different this time?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1596-1606, March.
    28. Vipin Ghildiyal & A.K Pokhriyal & A.K Pokhriyal & Arvind Mohan, 2015. "Impact of Financial Deepening on Economic Growth in Indian Perspective: ARDL Bound Testing Approach to Cointegration," Asian Development Policy Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(3), pages 49-60.
    29. Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2009. "Oil price pass-through into inflation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 126-133, January.
    30. Nikeel Kumar & Ronald Ravinesh Kumar & Radika Kumar & Peter Josef Stauvermann, 2020. "Is the tourism–growth relationship asymmetric in the Cook Islands? Evidence from NARDL cointegration and causality tests," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(4), pages 658-681, June.
    31. Olivier J. Blanchard & Jordi Gali, 2007. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Shocks: Why are the 2000s So Different from the 1970s?," NBER Working Papers 13368, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    32. Peter Ferderer, J., 1996. "Oil price volatility and the macroeconomy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-26.
    33. Qamruzzaman, Md & Jianguo, Wei, 2020. "The asymmetric relationship between financial development, trade openness, foreign capital flows, and renewable energy consumption: Fresh evidence from panel NARDL investigation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 827-842.
    34. Sam, Chung Yan & McNown, Robert & Goh, Soo Khoon, 2019. "An augmented autoregressive distributed lag bounds test for cointegration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 130-141.
    35. Ali, Mumtaz & Tursoy, Turgut & Samour, Ahmed & Moyo, Delani & Konneh, Abrahim, 2022. "Testing the impact of the gold price, oil price, and renewable energy on carbon emissions in South Africa: Novel evidence from bootstrap ARDL and NARDL approaches," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    36. Amusa, Hammed & Amusa, Kafayat & Mabugu, Ramos, 2009. "Aggregate demand for electricity in South Africa: An analysis using the bounds testing approach to cointegration," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 4167-4175, October.
    37. Sek, Siok Kun, 2017. "Impact of oil price changes on domestic price inflation at disaggregated levels: Evidence from linear and nonlinear ARDL modeling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 204-217.
    38. Sun, Qingru & An, Haizhong & Gao, Xiangyun & Guo, Sui & Wang, Ze & Liu, Siyao & Wen, Shaobo, 2019. "Effects of crude oil shocks on the PPI system based on variance decomposition network analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    39. Vipin Ghildiyal & A.K. Pokhriyal & Arvind Mohan, 2015. "Impact of Financial Deepening on Economic Growth in Indian Perspective: ARDL Bound Testing Approach to Cointegration," Asian Development Policy Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(3), pages 49-60, September.
    40. Lin, Mei-Yin & An, Che-Lun, 2021. "The relationship between Bitcoin and resource commodity futures: Evidence from NARDL approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    41. Mehmet Balcilar & Josine Uwilingiye & Rangan Gupta, 2018. "Dynamic Relationship Between Oil Price And Inflation In South Africa," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 52(2), pages 73-93, April-Jun.
    42. Doroodian, K. & Boyd, Roy, 2003. "The linkage between oil price shocks and economic growth with inflation in the presence of technological advances: a CGE model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 989-1006, August.
    43. Yixing Yang & Md. Qamruzzaman & Mohd Ziaur Rehman & Salma Karim, 2021. "Do Tourism and Institutional Quality Asymmetrically Effects on FDI Sustainability in BIMSTEC Countries: An Application of ARDL, CS-ARDL, NARDL, and Asymmetric Causality Test," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-29, September.
    44. Shahriyar Mukhtarov & Sugra Humbatova & Mubariz Mammadli & Natig Gadim‒Oglu Hajiyev, 2021. "The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on National Income: Evidence from Azerbaijan," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-11, March.
    45. Husaini, Dzul Hadzwan & Puah, Chin-Hong & Lean, Hooi Hooi, 2019. "Energy subsidy and oil price fluctuation, and price behavior in Malaysia:A time series analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 1000-1008.
    46. Demir, Ender & Simonyan, Serdar & García-Gómez, Conrado-Diego & Lau, Chi Keung Marco, 2021. "The asymmetric effect of bitcoin on altcoins: evidence from the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    47. Lee, Kiseok & Ni, Shawn, 2002. "On the dynamic effects of oil price shocks: a study using industry level data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 823-852, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lang, Korbinian & Auer, Benjamin R., 2020. "The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    2. Peersman, Gert & Van Robays, Ine, 2012. "Cross-country differences in the effects of oil shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1532-1547.
    3. John Baffes & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge & Marc Stocker, 2015. "The great plunge in oil prices: causes, consequences, and policy responses," CAMA Working Papers 2015-23, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    4. Imran Shah, 2012. "Revisiting the Dynamic Effects of Oil Price Shock on Small Developing Economies," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 12/626, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    5. Virjinia Jeliazkova, 2010. "Effects of the Dynamics of the Oil Price – Theoretical and Empirical Bases," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 127-165.
    6. Naser, Hanan & Ahmed, Abdul Rashid, 2016. "Oil Price Shocks and Stock Market Performance in Emerging Economies: Some Evidence using FAVAR Models," MPRA Paper 77868, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Pham T. T. Trinh & Bui T. T. My, 2023. "The impact of world oil price shocks on macroeconomic variables in Vietnam: the transmission through domestic oil price," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 37(1), pages 67-87, May.
    8. Ioannidis, Christos & Ka, Kook, 2018. "The impact of oil price shocks on the term structure of interest rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 601-620.
    9. Jo, Soojin & Karnizova, Lilia & Reza, Abeer, 2019. "Industry effects of oil price shocks: A re-examination," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 179-190.
    10. Joëts, Marc & Mignon, Valérie & Razafindrabe, Tovonony, 2017. "Does the volatility of commodity prices reflect macroeconomic uncertainty?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 313-326.
    11. Claudio Morana, 2013. "The Oil Price-Macroeconomy Relationship Since the Mid-1980s: A Global Perspective," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    12. Filis, George & Degiannakis, Stavros & Floros, Christos, 2011. "Dynamic correlation between stock market and oil prices: The case of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 152-164, June.
    13. Yingce Yang & Junjie Guo & Ruihong He, 2023. "The Asymmetric Impact of the Oil Price and Disaggregate Shocks on Economic Policy Uncertainty: Evidence From China," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(2), pages 21582440231, June.
    14. Huang, Xuan & Liu, Xueyong, 2022. "The time-frequency evolution of multidimensional relations between global oil prices and China's general price level," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 244(PA).
    15. Jinyu Chen & Xuehong Zhu, 2021. "The Effects of Different Types of Oil Price Shocks on Industrial PPI: Evidence from 36 Sub-industries in China," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(12), pages 3411-3434, September.
    16. Fan, Wenrui & Wang, Zanxin, 2022. "Whether to abandon or continue the petroleum product price regulation in China？," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    17. Charfeddine, Lanouar & Klein, Tony & Walther, Thomas, 2018. "Oil Price Changes and U.S. Real GDP Growth: Is this Time Different?," QBS Working Paper Series 2018/03, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's Business School.
    18. Mustafa Kocoglu, 2023. "Drivers of inflation in Turkey: a new Keynesian Phillips curve perspective," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 2825-2853, August.
    19. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Cunado, Juncal & Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser & Gupta, Rangan, 2019. "Oil price-inflation pass-through in the United States over 1871 to 2018: A wavelet coherency analysis," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 51-55.
    20. Engemann, Kristie M. & Kliesen, Kevin L. & Owyang, Michael T., 2011. "Do Oil Shocks Drive Business Cycles? Some U.S. And International Evidence," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(S3), pages 498-517, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:290:y:2024:i:c:s0360544223035077. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.