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The third oil price surge - What's different this time?

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  • Kesicki, Fabian

Abstract

The period from 2003 to 2008 was marked by an oil price increase comparable to the two oil price crises in the 1970s. This paper looks in detail at the situation of the oil price crises 30 years ago and compares them along various aspects on the demand and supply side with the recent price increase to identify similarities and differences. While both oil price crises in 1973 and 1979/1980 were ultimately caused by supply actions of members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), all three oil price crises were preceded by high demand growth. Other aspects that favoured a high oil price in all three cases were low investments in new oil fields, as a consequence low spare capacity, and a weak US dollar. In addition, the recent oil price surge has been characterised by a high global refinery utilisation and refineries that did not adapt fast enough to the rising demand for lighter oil products. Moreover, broader geopolitical uncertainties, combined with risks associated with the oil trade helped push the oil price into a triple-digit zone. Speculation played only a limited and temporary role in accelerating price movements during the recent price increase.

Suggested Citation

  • Kesicki, Fabian, 2010. "The third oil price surge - What's different this time?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1596-1606, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:38:y:2010:i:3:p:1596-1606
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    1. Davig, Troy A. & Cakir Melek, Nida & Nie, Jun & Tuzemen, Didem & Smith, Andrew Lee, 2015. "Evaluating a year of oil price volatility," Macro Bulletin, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 1-3.
    2. Chen, Hao & Liao, Hua & Tang, Bao-Jun & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2016. "Impacts of OPEC's political risk on the international crude oil prices: An empirical analysis based on the SVAR models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 42-49.
    3. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Yao, Ting, 2016. "Interpreting the movement of oil prices: Driven by fundamentals or bubbles?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 226-240.
    4. Tokic, Damir, 2011. "Rational destabilizing speculation, positive feedback trading, and the oil bubble of 2008," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 2051-2061, April.
    5. Lammerding, Marc & Stephan, Patrick & Trede, Mark & Wilfling, Bernd, 2013. "Speculative bubbles in recent oil price dynamics: Evidence from a Bayesian Markov-switching state-space approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 491-502.
    6. Rigoberto Ariel Yépez-García & Luis San Vicente Portes & Luis Enrique García, 2013. "Planning for Higher Oil Prices : Power Sector Impact in Latin America and the Caribbean," World Bank Other Operational Studies 17547, The World Bank.
    7. Glöser, Simon & Tercero Espinoza, Luis & Gandenberger, Carsten & Faulstich, Martin, 2015. "Raw material criticality in the context of classical risk assessment," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 35-46.
    8. Hache, Emmanuel & Lantz, Frédéric, 2013. "Speculative trading and oil price dynamic: A study of the WTI market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 334-340.
    9. Jakobsson, Kristofer & Söderbergh, Bengt & Snowden, Simon & Li, Chuan-Zhong & Aleklett, Kjell, 2012. "Oil exploration and perceptions of scarcity: The fallacy of early success," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1226-1233.
    10. Tokic, Damir, 2012. "Speculation and the 2008 oil bubble: The DCOT Report analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 541-550.
    11. Ma, Linwei & Fu, Feng & Li, Zheng & Liu, Pei, 2012. "Oil development in China: Current status and future trends," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 43-53.
    12. Njimanted Godfrey Forgha & Molem Christopher Sama & Elvis Dze Achuo, 2015. "Petroleum Products Price Fluctuations and Economic Growth in Cameroon," Growth, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 2(2), pages 30-40.
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    14. repec:eee:jrpoli:v:52:y:2017:i:c:p:358-365 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Natanelov, Valeri & Alam, Mohammad J. & McKenzie, Andrew M. & Van Huylenbroeck, Guido, 2011. "Is there co-movement of agricultural commodities futures prices and crude oil?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 4971-4984, September.
    16. Bohl, Martin T. & Kaufmann, Philipp & Siklos, Pierre L., 2015. "What drove the mid-2000s explosiveness in alternative energy stock prices? Evidence from U.S., European and global indices," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 194-206.
    17. Zhao, Chunfu & Chen, Bin, 2014. "China’s oil security from the supply chain perspective: A review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, pages 269-279.
    18. Nizar, Muhammad Afdi, 2012. "Dampak Fluktuasi Harga Minyak Dunia Terhadap Perekonomian Indonesia
      [The Impact of World Oil Prices Fluctuation on Indonesia’s Economy]
      ," MPRA Paper 65601, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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