IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/minecn/v31y2018i3d10.1007_s13563-017-0130-y.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Copper price determination: fundamentals versus non-fundamentals

Author

Listed:
  • Juan Ignacio Guzmán

    (Mining Department of the Catholic University of Chile)

  • Enrique Silva

    (Research and Strategic Management at Codelco)

Abstract

In mineral economics, there is quite broad consensus that market fundamentals (physical supply and demand) explain commodity price fluctuations, particularly in the medium and long term. However, following the recent price boom, some dissent has arisen about the role played by non-fundamentals such as liquidity or money supply in key countries and regions, the financialization of commodities and, particularly, financial speculation. This paper develops an empirical model for the copper market, consisting in a vector autoregression (VAR) with 16 variables, including both fundamentals and non-fundamentals. Since the variables’ impact probably changes over time, the 20 years studied are divided into three periods (1995–2003, 2003–2008, and 2008–2015) separated by two structural breaks related to the Chinese boom and the financial crisis/Great Moderation. The results show that, although the fundamentals are relevant in all the periods analyzed, liquidity and other macroeconomic variables are also necessary in order to understand the level of copper prices and their fluctuations. In the case of financial speculation, the results indicate that its impact was significant only in 2003–2008 and, even then, was smaller than that of the fundamentals and macroeconomic variables, explaining around 9% of the price increase in this period. The results support the conclusion that, for the purposes of modeling and forecasting, current models based only on the fundamentals cannot fully explain price dynamics which are shown to be, in general, more complex than has been assumed by mainstream mineral economics.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Ignacio Guzmán & Enrique Silva, 2018. "Copper price determination: fundamentals versus non-fundamentals," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 31(3), pages 283-300, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:minecn:v:31:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s13563-017-0130-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s13563-017-0130-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s13563-017-0130-y
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s13563-017-0130-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hu, S. David & Zandi, Iraj, 1980. "Copper econometric models," Engineering Costs and Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 53-70, June.
    2. Fatma Pinar Erdem & Ibrahim Unalmis, 2016. "Revisiting super-cycles in commodity prices," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 16(4), pages 137-142.
    3. Pirrong, Craig, 2017. "The economics of commodity market manipulation: A survey," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(C), pages 1-17.
    4. Browne, Frank & Cronin, David, 2010. "Commodity prices, money and inflation," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 62(4), pages 331-345, July.
    5. Haugom, Erik & Ray, Rina, 2017. "Heterogeneous traders, liquidity, and volatility in crude oil futures market," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(C), pages 36-49.
    6. Humphreys, David, 2010. "The great metals boom: A retrospective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-13, March.
    7. Marshall, Ben R. & Nguyen, Nhut H. & Visaltanachoti, Nuttawat, 2013. "Liquidity commonality in commodities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 11-20.
    8. Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2015. "Commodity prices and BRIC and G3 liquidity: A SFAVEC approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 18-33.
    9. Yaksic, Andrés & Tilton, John E., 2009. "Using the cumulative availability curve to assess the threat of mineral depletion: The case of lithium," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 185-194, December.
    10. Roberto F. Aguilera & Roderick G. Eggert & Gustavo Lagos C.C. & John E. Tilton, 2009. "Depletion and the Future Availability of Petroleum Resources," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 141-174.
    11. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    12. Kaufmann, Robert K., 2011. "The role of market fundamentals and speculation in recent price changes for crude oil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 105-115, January.
    13. Belke, Ansgar & Bordon, Ingo G. & Volz, Ulrich, 2013. "Effects of Global Liquidity on Commodity and Food Prices," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 31-43.
    14. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2014. "Effects of speculation and interest rates in a “carry trade” model of commodity prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 88-112.
    15. Huchet, Nicolas & Fam, Papa Gueye, 2016. "The role of speculation in international futures markets on commodity prices," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 49-65.
    16. Andreasson, Pierre & Bekiros, Stelios & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2016. "Impact of speculation and economic uncertainty on commodity markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 115-127.
    17. Belke, Ansgar H. & Bordon, Ingo G. & Hendricks, Torben W., 2014. "Monetary policy, global liquidity and commodity price dynamics," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 1-16.
    18. Cifarelli, Giulio & Paladino, Giovanna, 2015. "A dynamic model of hedging and speculation in the commodity futures markets," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 1-15.
    19. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.
    20. Pindyck, Robert S & Rotemberg, Julio J, 1990. "The Excess Co-movement of Commodity Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(403), pages 1173-1189, December.
    21. Riza Emekter & Benjamas Jirasakuldech & Peter Went, 2012. "Rational speculative bubbles and commodities markets: application of duration dependence test," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(7), pages 581-596, April.
    22. Jordan, Brett W. & Eggert, Roderick G. & Dixon, Brent W. & Carlsen, Brett W., 2015. "Thorium: Crustal abundance, joint production, and economic availability," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 81-93.
    23. Shanker, Latha, 2017. "New indices of adequate and excess speculation and their relationship with volatility in the crude oil futures market," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(C), pages 18-35.
    24. Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2013. "Liquidity and crude oil prices: China's influence over 1996–2011," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 517-525.
    25. Kaufmann, Robert K. & Ullman, Ben, 2009. "Oil prices, speculation, and fundamentals: Interpreting causal relations among spot and futures prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 550-558, July.
    26. Pustov, Alexander & Malanichev, Alexander & Khobotilov, Ilya, 2013. "Long-term iron ore price modeling: Marginal costs vs. incentive price," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 558-567.
    27. Franklin M. Fisher & Paul H. Cootner & Martin N. Baily, 1972. "An Econometric Model of the World Copper Industry," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 3(2), pages 568-609, Autumn.
    28. Li, Haiqi & Kim, Hyung-Gun & Park, Sung Y., 2015. "The role of financial speculation in the energy future markets: A new time-varying coefficient approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 112-122.
    29. Radetzki, Marian, 2006. "The anatomy of three commodity booms," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 56-64, March.
    30. Beckmann, Joscha & Belke, Ansgar & Czudaj, Robert, 2014. "Does global liquidity drive commodity prices?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 224-234.
    31. Luciana Juvenal & Ivan Petrella, 2015. "Speculation in the Oil Market," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(4), pages 621-649, June.
    32. Working, Holbrook, 1960. "Speculation on Hedging Markets," Food Research Institute Studies, Stanford University, Food Research Institute, vol. 1(2), pages 1-36.
    33. Tilton, John E. & Humphreys, David & Radetzki, Marian, 2011. "Investor demand and spot commodity prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 187-195, September.
    34. Bosch, David & Pradkhan, Elina, 2015. "The impact of speculation on precious metals futures markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 118-134.
    35. Radetzki,Marian, 2008. "A Handbook of Primary Commodities in the Global Economy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521880206, Junio.
    36. Sun, Zesheng & Sun, Bianxia & Lin, Sharon X., 2013. "The impact of monetary liquidity on Chinese aluminum prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 512-522.
    37. Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2012. "Liquidity and Crude Oil Prices: China’s Influence Over 1996-2011," MPRA Paper 48900, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    38. Haase, Marco & Seiler Zimmermann, Yvonne & Zimmermann, Heinz, 2016. "The impact of speculation on commodity futures markets – A review of the findings of 100 empirical studies," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 1-15.
    39. Babalos, Vassilios & Balcilar, Mehmet, 2017. "Does institutional trading drive commodities prices away from their fundamentals: Evidence from a nonparametric causality-in-quantiles test," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 126-131.
    40. Chan, Leo H. & Nguyen, Chi M. & Chan, Kam C., 2015. "A new approach to measure speculation in the oil futures market and some policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 133-141.
    41. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1986. "Expectations and Commodity Price Dynamics: The Overshooting Model," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 68(2), pages 344-348.
    42. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Yao, Ting, 2016. "Interpreting the movement of oil prices: Driven by fundamentals or bubbles?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 226-240.
    43. Scott W. Barnhart, 1989. "The Effects of Macroeconomic Announcements on Commodity Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 71(2), pages 389-403.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Galán-Gutiérrez, Juan Antonio & Martín-García, Rodrigo, 2021. "Cointegration between the structure of copper futures prices and Brexit," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    2. Neil A. Wilmot, 2019. "Heavy Metals: Might as Well Jump," International Journal of Financial Studies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(2), pages 1-14, June.
    3. Byungkwon Lim & Hyeon Sook Kim & Jaehwan Park, 2020. "Direct Effect of TC on the LME Copper Prices," Economies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(2), pages 1-9, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Agnello, Luca & Castro, Vítor & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2020. "Global factors, uncertainty, weather conditions and energy prices: On the drivers of the duration of commodity price cycle phases," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    2. Sun, Zesheng & Wang, Yaoqing & Zhou, Xu & Yang, Lunan, 2019. "The roundabout from interest rates to commodity prices in China: The role of money flow," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 627-642.
    3. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2015. "US monetary policy and sectoral commodity prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 61-85.
    4. Śmiech, Sławomir & Papież, Monika & Dąbrowski, Marek A., 2015. "Does the euro area macroeconomy affect global commodity prices? Evidence from a SVAR approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 485-503.
    5. Nicolas Legrand, 2019. "The Empirical Merit Of Structural Explanations Of Commodity Price Volatility: Review And Perspectives," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 639-664, April.
    6. Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2015. "OPEC and non-OPEC oil production and the global economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 364-378.
    7. repec:ipg:wpaper:19 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Qadan, Mahmoud & Nama, Hazar, 2018. "Investor sentiment and the price of oil," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 42-58.
    9. Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2015. "Commodity prices and BRIC and G3 liquidity: A SFAVEC approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 18-33.
    10. Kakade, Kshitij Abhay & Mishra, Aswini Kumar, 2021. "The impact of macroeconomic and oil shocks on India’s non-ferrous metal prices: A structural-VAR approach," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 63, pages 30-50.
    11. Yannick Le Pen & Benoît Sévi, 2013. "Futures Trading and the Excess Comovement of Commodity Prices," Working Papers halshs-00793724, HAL.
    12. Robert Socha & Piotr Wdowiński, 2018. "Crude oil price and speculative activity: a cointegration analysis," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 10(3), pages 263-304, September.
    13. Vasyl Golosnoy & Anja Rossen, 2018. "Modeling dynamics of metal price series via state space approach with two common factors," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1477-1501, June.
    14. repec:ipg:wpaper:2013-019 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Diaz-Rainey, Ivan & Roberts, Helen & Lont, David H., 2017. "Crude inventory accounting and speculation in the physical oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 508-522.
    16. Cummins, Mark & Dowling, Michael & Kearney, Fearghal, 2016. "Oil market modelling: A comparative analysis of fundamental and latent factor approaches," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 211-218.
    17. Shawkat Hammoudeh & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2014. "US Monetary Policy and Commodity Sector Prices," Working Papers 2014-438, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    18. Shawkat Hammoudeh & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2014. "China’s Monetary Policy and Commodity Prices," Working Papers 2014-298, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    19. repec:dau:papers:123456789/11382 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Jeng-Bau Lin & Wei Tsai, 2019. "The Relations of Oil Price Change with Fear Gauges in Global Political and Economic Environment," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 12(15), pages 1-17, August.
    21. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2016. "Chinese liquidity increases and the U.S. economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 764-771.
    22. Joseph P Byrne & Ryuta Sakemoto & Bing Xu, 2020. "Commodity price co-movement: heterogeneity and the time-varying impact of fundamentals [Oil price shocks and the stock market: evidence from Japan]," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 47(2), pages 499-528.
    23. Rossen, Anja, 2015. "What are metal prices like? Co-movement, price cycles and long-run trends," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 255-276.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Copper price; Financialization; Fundamentals; Non-fundamentals; Liquidity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:minecn:v:31:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s13563-017-0130-y. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.