IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

A new approach to measure speculation in the oil futures market and some policy implications

Listed author(s):
  • Chan, Leo H.
  • Nguyen, Chi M.
  • Chan, Kam C.
Registered author(s):

    We propose using a new relative measure, the speculative ratio, defined as trading volume divided by open interest, to gauge speculative activity in the oil futures market. We apply the speculative ratio to examine the relation between basis and speculative activity in the oil futures market before and after the financialization of the oil market in 2003. Our finding suggests that the oil futures market is dominated by uninformed speculators in the post-financialization period. Our finding carries several practical policy implications, as follows: (1) both the commodity exchange and the regulator should design regulations and trading policies that improve basis risk; (2) on the commodity exchange side, new policies on margin requirements and position limits for speculators should be implemented; (3) margin requirements should be based on the level of basis risk; (4) regulators should speed up implementation of the position limit rule in the Dodd–Frank Act; and (5) stronger and more meaningful enforcement actions by regulators are required to punish and deter market manipulators.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421515300021
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.

    Volume (Year): 86 (2015)
    Issue (Month): C ()
    Pages: 133-141

    as
    in new window

    Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:86:y:2015:i:c:p:133-141
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2015.06.034
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as
    in new window


    1. Arouri, Mohamed El Hédi & Lahiani, Amine & Lévy, Aldo & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2012. "Forecasting the conditional volatility of oil spot and futures prices with structural breaks and long memory models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 283-293.
    2. Leland L. Johnson, 1960. "The Theory of Hedging and Speculation in Commodity Futures," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 27(3), pages 139-151.
    3. Dwight R. Sanders & Scott H. Irwin & Robert P. Merrin, 2010. "The Adequacy of Speculation in Agricultural Futures Markets: Too Much of a Good Thing?," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 32(1), pages 77-94.
    4. repec:dau:papers:123456789/878 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Delphine Lautier & Fabrice Riva, 2008. "The determinants of volatility on the American crude oil futures market," Post-Print halshs-00673248, HAL.
    6. Bessembinder, Hendrik & Seguin, Paul J., 1993. "Price Volatility, Trading Volume, and Market Depth: Evidence from Futures Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(01), pages 21-39, March.
    7. Bessembinder, Hendrik & Seguin, Paul J, 1992. " Futures-Trading Activity and Stock Price Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 2015-2034, December.
    8. Tokic, Damir, 2011. "Rational destabilizing speculation, positive feedback trading, and the oil bubble of 2008," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 2051-2061, April.
    9. Delphine Lautier & Fabrice Riva, 2008. "The Determinants Of Volatility On The American Crude Oil Futures Market," Post-Print halshs-00368314, HAL.
    10. Mazouz, Khelifa & Bowe, Michael, 2006. "The volatility effect of futures trading: Evidence from LSE traded stocks listed as individual equity futures contracts on LIFFE," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 1-20.
    11. Du, Xiaodong & Yu, Cindy L. & Hayes, Dermot J., 2011. "Speculation and volatility spillover in the crude oil and agricultural commodity markets: A Bayesian analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 497-503, May.
    12. Larsson, Karl & Nossman, Marcus, 2011. "Jumps and stochastic volatility in oil prices: Time series evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 504-514, May.
    13. Hung‐Gay Fung & Gary A. Patterson, 2001. "Volatility, global information, and market conditions: a study in futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(2), pages 173-196, February.
    14. Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August.
    15. Filippo Lechthaler & Lisa Leinert, 2012. "Moody Oil - What is Driving the Crude Oil Price?," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 12/168, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    16. Ivan Diaz-Rainey, 2011. "The financial regulation of energy and environmental markets," Journal of Financial Regulation and Compliance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 19(4), pages 355-369, November.
    17. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.
    18. Stefan Reitz & Ulf Slopek, 2009. "Non-Linear Oil Price Dynamics: A Tale of Heterogeneous Speculators?," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 10, pages 270-283, August.
    19. Holbrook Working, 1953. "Hedging Reconsidered," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 35(4), pages 544-561.
    20. D. Lautier & F. Riva, 2008. "The determinants of volatility on the American crude oil futures market," Post-Print hal-00804212, HAL.
    21. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    22. Delphine Lautier & Fabrice Riva, 2008. "The determinants of volatility in the American crude oil futures market," Post-Print halshs-00640796, HAL.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:86:y:2015:i:c:p:133-141. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.