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Moody Oil - What is Driving the Crude Oil Price?

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Abstract

The unparalleled surge of the crude oil price after 2003 has triggered a heated scientific and public debate about its ultimate causes. Unexpected demand growth particularly from emerging economies appears to be the most prominently supported reason among academics. We study the price dynamics after 2003 in the global crude oil market using a structural VAR model. We account for structural breaks and approximate market expectations using a time series for media sentiment in order to contribute to the existing literature. We and that forward-looking demand activities rather than demand arising from current needs have played an important role for the run-up in the price of crude oil after 2003. We additionally and that emerging economies have not majorly contributed to the price surge

Suggested Citation

  • Filippo Lechthaler & Lisa Leinert, 2012. "Moody Oil - What is Driving the Crude Oil Price?," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 12/168, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    • Handle: RePEc:eth:wpswif:12-168
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    1. Maslyuk-Escobedo, Svetlana & Rotaru, Kristian & Dokumentov, Alexander, 2017. "News sentiment and jumps in energy spot and futures markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 186-210.
    2. Mohamed Sahbi Nakhli & Khaled Mokni & Manel Youssef, 2025. "Time‐varying causality between investor sentiment and oil price: Does uncertainty matter?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), pages 369-381, January.
    3. Diaz-Rainey, Ivan & Roberts, Helen & Lont, David H., 2017. "Crude inventory accounting and speculation in the physical oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 508-522.
    4. Chan, Leo H. & Nguyen, Chi M. & Chan, Kam C., 2015. "A new approach to measure speculation in the oil futures market and some policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 133-141.
    5. Chan, Kam C. & Chan, Leo H. & Nguyen, Chi M., 2020. "Forecasting oil futures market volatility in a financialized world: Why speculative activities matter," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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