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Updating Inflation Expectations

Author

Listed:
  • Michael J. Lamla

    () (ETH Zurich)

  • Samad Sarferaz

    () (ETH Zurich)

Abstract

This paper investigates how inflation expectations evolve. In particular, we analyze the time-varying nature of the propensity to update expectations and its potential determinants. For this purpose we set up a flexible econometric model that tracks the formation of inflation expectations of consumers at each moment in time. We show that the propensity to update inflation expectations changes substantially over time and is related to the quantity and the quality of news.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael J. Lamla & Samad Sarferaz, 2012. "Updating Inflation Expectations," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201216, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  • Handle: RePEc:mar:magkse:201216
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    File URL: https://www.uni-marburg.de/fb02/makro/forschung/magkspapers/16-2012_lamla.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2012
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Andrade, Philippe & Le Bihan, Hervé, 2013. "Inattentive professional forecasters," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(8), pages 967-982.
    2. Lena Dräger & Michael Lamla, 2013. "Imperfect Information and Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Microdata," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201301, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    3. Lena Draeger & Michael J. Lamla, 2013. "Imperfect information and inflation expectations," KOF Working papers 13-329, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    4. repec:bla:obuest:v:79:y:2017:i:6:p:933-968 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:spr:portec:v:16:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s10258-017-0129-x is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Dräger, Lena & Lamla, Michael J., 2012. "Updating inflation expectations: Evidence from micro-data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 807-810.
    7. Arnildo da Silva Correa & Paulo Picchetti, 2016. "New Information and Updating of Market Experts’ Inflation Expectations," Working Papers Series 411, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    8. Filippo Lechthaler & Lisa Leinert, 2012. "Moody Oil - What is Driving the Crude Oil Price?," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 12/168, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    9. Chiara Ravetti & Yana Popp Jin & Mu Quan & Zhang Shiqiu & Timothy Swanson, 2014. "Air pollution in Urban Beijing: The role of Government-controlled information," CIES Research Paper series 27-2014, Centre for International Environmental Studies, The Graduate Institute.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation expectation formation; time-varying parameters; Bayesian methods disagreement; media coverage; stochastic volatility.;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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