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Modelling and testing volatility spillovers in oil and financial markets for USA, UK and China

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  • Chia-Lin Chang

    () (Department of Applied Economics Department of Finance National Chung Hsing University Taichung, Taiwan.)

  • Michael McAleer

    (Department of Quantitative Finance National Tsing Hua University, Taiwan and Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics Erasmus University Rotterdam and Tinbergen Institute, The Netherlands and Department of Quantitative Economics Complutense University of Madrid, Spain.)

  • Jiarong Tian

    (Department of Quantitative Finance National Tsing Hua University Taiwan.)

Abstract

The primary purpose of the paper is to analyze the conditional correlations, conditional covariances, and co-volatility spillovers between international crude oil and associated financial markets. The paper investigates co-volatility spillovers (namely, the delayed effect of a returns shock in one physical or financial asset on the subsequent volatility or co-volatility in another physical or financial asset) between the oil and financial markets. The oil industry has four major regions, namely North Sea, USA, Middle East, and South-East Asia. Associated with these regions are two major financial centers, namely UK and USA. For these reasons, the data to be used are the returns on alternative crude oil markets, returns on crude oil derivatives, specifically futures, and stock index returns in UK and USA. The paper will also analyze the Chinese financial markets, where the data are more recent. The empirical analysis will be based on the diagonal BEKK model, from which the conditional covariances will be used for testing co-volatility spillovers, and policy recommendations. Based on these results, dynamic hedging strategies will be suggested to analyze market fluctuations in crude oil prices and associated financial markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer & Jiarong Tian, 2016. "Modelling and testing volatility spillovers in oil and financial markets for USA, UK and China," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2016-09, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
  • Handle: RePEc:ucm:doicae:1609
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Muhammad Hanif, 2020. "Relationship between Oil and Stock Markets: Evidence from Pakistan Stock Exchange," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(5), pages 150-157.
    2. Chang, Chia-Lin & McAleer, Michael & Wang, Yu-Ann, 2020. "Herding behaviour in energy stock markets during the Global Financial Crisis, SARS, and ongoing COVID-19," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Co-volatility spillovers; Crude oil; Financial markets; Spot; Futures; Diagonal BEKK; Optimal dynamic hedging.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products

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