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An Econometric Analysis of ETF and ETF Futures in Financial and Energy Markets using Generated Regressors

Listed author(s):
  • Chia-Lin Chang

    (National Chung Hsing University, Taiwan)

  • Michael McAleer

    (National Tsing Hua University, Taiwan; Erasmus University Rotterdam, The Netherlands; Complutense University of Madrid, Spain)

  • Chien-Hsun Wang

    (National Tsing Hua University, Taiwan)

It is well known that that there is an intrinsic link between the financial and energy sectors, which can be analyzed through their spillover effects, which are measures of how the shocks to returns in different assets affect each other’s subsequent volatility in both spot and futures markets. Financial derivatives, which are not only highly representative of the underlying indices but can also be traded on both the spot and futures markets, include Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), which is a tradable spot index whose aim is to replicate the return of an underlying benchmark index. When ETF futures are not available to examine spillover effects, “generated regressors” may be used to construct both Financial ETF futures and Energy ETF futures. The purpose of the paper is to investigate the co-volatility spillovers within and across the US energy and financial sectors in both spot and futures markets, by using “generated regressors” and a multivariate conditional volatility model, namely Diagonal BEKK. The daily data used are from 1998/12/23 to 2016/4/22. The data set is analyzed in its entirety, and also subdivided into three subset time periods. The empirical results show there is a significant relationship between the Financial ETF and Energy ETF in the spot and futures markets. Therefore, financial and energy ETFs are suitable for constructing a financial portfolio from an optimal risk management perspective, and also for dynamic hedging purposes.

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Paper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 16-052/III.

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Date of creation: 18 Jul 2016
Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20160052
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  1. Chia-Lin Chang & Yiying Li & Michael McAleer, 2015. "Volatility Spillovers Between Energy and Agricultural Markets: A Critical Appraisal of Theory and Practice," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2015-08, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
  2. Ling, Shiqing & McAleer, Michael, 2003. "Asymptotic Theory For A Vector Arma-Garch Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(02), pages 280-310, April.
  3. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 122-150, February.
  4. Chia-Lin Chang & Tai-Lin Hsieh & Michael McAleer, 2016. "How are VIX and Stock Index ETF Related?," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2016-02, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
  5. Chia-Lin Chang & Tai-Lin Hsieh & Michael McAleer, 2016. "Connecting VIX and Stock Index ETF," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 16-010/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 23 Jan 2017.
  6. Michael McAleer & Christian M. Hafner, 2014. "A One Line Derivation of EGARCH," Econometrics, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 2(2), pages 1-6, June.
  7. McAleer, Michael & Jimenez-Martin, Juan-Angel & Perez-Amaral, Teodosio, 2013. "Has the Basel Accord improved risk management during the global financial crisis?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 250-265.
  8. John Baffes & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge & Marc Stocker, 2015. "The Great Plunge in Oil Prices: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses," Policy Research Notes (PRNs) 94725, The World Bank.
  9. Jeantheau, Thierry, 1998. "Strong Consistency Of Estimators For Multivariate Arch Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(01), pages 70-86, February.
  10. repec:wsi:afexxx:v:09:y:2014:i:02:n:s2010495214400065 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Fiebig, Denzil G. & McAleer, Michael & Bartels, Robert, 1992. "Properties of ordinary least squares estimators in regression models with nonspherical disturbances," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 321-334.
  12. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
  13. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
  14. Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer & Yu-Ann Wang, 2016. "Modelling Volatility Spillovers for Bio-ethanol, Sugarcane and Corn Spot and Futures Prices," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2017-04, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
  15. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-131, February.
  16. Chia-Lin Chang & Yu-Pei Ke, 2014. "Testing Price Pressure, Information, Feedback Trading, And Smoothing Effects For Energy Exchange Traded Funds," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(02), pages 1-26.
  17. Michael McAleer & Suhejla Hoti & Felix Chan, 2009. "Structure and Asymptotic Theory for Multivariate Asymmetric Conditional Volatility," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(5), pages 422-440.
  18. Chia-Lin Chang & Yu-Pei Ke, 2014. "Testing Price Pressure, Information, Feedback Trading, And Smoothing Effects For Energy Exchange Traded Funds," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(02), pages 1-26.
  19. McAleer, Michael, 2005. "Automated Inference And Learning In Modeling Financial Volatility," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(01), pages 232-261, February.
  20. McAleer, Michael, 1992. "Efficient Estimation: The Rao-Zyskind Condition, Kruskal's Theorem and Ordinary Least Squares," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 68(200), pages 65-72, March.
  21. Chang, C-L. & McAleer, M.J. & Wang, Y-A., 2016. "Modelling Volatility Spillovers for Bio-ethanol, Sugarcane and Corn," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2016-15, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  22. Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August.
  23. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
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